S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2206.75 | 2204.25 |
| …would target | 2213.75 | 2211.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2197.50 | 2195.25 |
| …would target | 2192.25 | 2189.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The afternoon’s recovery extended to fresh post-open highs that touched this morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target. Its upside attraction is now neutralized, as is the 2200.00 opening gap up above all prior highs. Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is outstanding, regardless of having been attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Also outstanding is the 2220.00 objective, which was put into play by closing above 2192.00 Monday.
None of which prevents a reaction down Wednesday, despite the likely and least likely windows all having passed as Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness arrives. Especially not when Wednesday’s econ calendar is extremely busy, with high-profile and reliably influential reports, including the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Drifting higher into the sunset.
Having held range’s lower-end, upper-end now attacked.
This morning’s drop back down to yesterday afternoon’s 2192.00 prior lows did hold their test, where at least 1-minute RSI diverged positively. The noon hour’s rally extended to test but not trigger this afternoon’s 2196.75 bias-up signal, which then defined the bias environment’s upper-end.
Now the bias environment has lapsed. The open’s 2198.00-2101.00 opening range is being probed. The 2200.00 opening print is being attacked. This isn’t yet within the 2203.00 overnight high’s orbit, but there’s no bearish reason to have retraced only this much of the reaction down.
The bias environment began lapsing above the noon hour’s high, and the final hour was entered above the bias environment’s high. That’s traction. Depending on the final hour’s pattern, there may still be a setup for a session-long decline. Meanwhile, fresh highs remain likely whether overnight or tomorrow.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow range was followed by another on Tuesday, dipping only deeply enough to attack Friday’s low. At least a third eventual lower close is still required to fulfill Thursday’s confirmed breakout.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An even bigger bounce Monday night probed above the 1213.00 bounce limit and still resolved down to retest 1206.00 as support. The 1196.50 target remains intact.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s intraday fluctuation around 16.62 all but rejected what was the biggest overnight bounce since first fulfilling the objective, making fresh lows likely.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Monday night barely attacked the 154-19 bounce limit and held the continuation pattern’s uptrending support as resistance. While that doesn’t invalidate the downside momentum, there’s no bearish reason such as refueling for further delaying a drop to fresh lows.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight highs fulfilled the 48.75 target while attacking 49.25, reacting down almost immediately. A second consecutive higher close could have confirmed Monday’s breakout session and created a higher objective, but closing negative instead does not necessarily reverse momentum down.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Simply firming to close positive Tuesday still satisfies the eventual third higher close that became required by confirming Thursday’s breakout. The gaps outstanding below can no longer be tested from a position of strength, but could still hold if tested. This week’s EIA report is scheduled one day earlier on Wednesday due to the holiday.
Mid-day Update… Tough hurdle.
Noon hour’s bounce stops at resistance.
This morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target overnight is now “unfinished business above.” Meeting it overnight doesn’t qualify as fulfilling it, not before even triggering the 2197.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. And bias-up wasn’t rejected at 11:30, despite the morning bias environment returning to yesterday’s 2192.00 last relative low.
Add it to the 2203.00 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” which requires intraday retest. Add them to the 2220.00 objective put into play by yesterday’s close above 2192.00. And don’t forget today’s 2200.00 opening print. It gapped up above all prior highs, all but requiring a retest after dipping back under prior highs.
So, the reaction down seems to have bottomed upon testing yesterday afternoon’s lows at 2192.00. Seems to have, except a bounce up to this afternoon’s 2196.75 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. Firming further this afternoon is still possible, and would likely reach overnight highs. Otherwise, fresh lows could test 2191.00, and its break would target 2182.00.