S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy Thanksgiving! US markets are closed for the holiday, but Globex is still open.
1:00 PM ET Globex trading halt
6:00 PM ET Globex re-opens normally
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2203.50 | 2201.25 |
| …would target | 2207.75 | 2205.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2196.25 | 2194.00 |
| …would target | 2192.00 | 2189.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Waiting hours for Minutes.
Fresh post-open lows recover to narrowly avoid bias-down.
The pre-open slide ultimately extended to greet the open at 2193.25. Bouncing up to 2197.00 was resolved down to 2192.00. That was yesterday morning’s low, itself holding a test of Monday afternoon’s lows.
That was the opening 15 minutes of volatility — down 8 points from the close and testing support. Any lower would have fallen over the edge, perhaps less in terms of price than in marginalizing buyers for the balance of the morning.
But bouncing high enough for long enough invoked the grace period, and the 2195.25 bias-down signal avoided triggering. Exiting the grace period above the pre-10:15 2197.00 high was helpful confirmation. Crude Oil’s reaction to its EIA report also helped extend up to 2199.25.
An offsetting test of the 2204.25 bias-up signal is in-play. The signal has already been productive. So, 2204.25 will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. Having at least attacked support, flat-to-higher ranging is likely for the next three hours while awaiting the FOMC Minutes.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The otherwise narrow overnight range’s lower-end had been probed by 2-1/2 points to test 2198.00. Bouncing 3 points has resolved down sharply to 2194.00, and lower. That’s essentially the origin of yesterday afternoon’s rally, and almost any lower would compel a bearish mentality through the morning. By the same token, absorbing the dip and not triggering the 2195.50 bias-down signal would be bullish into the holiday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… An anxious calm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2200.00 was 3 points under the overnight “new Globex trend extreme.” That spread widened despite triggering bias-up, as the balance of the morning slid back down to Monday afternoon’s 2192.00 lows. But the balance of the session trended back up to and through the opening range until the final minutes fulfilled the morning’s 2202.50 bias-up target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy but narrow ranging eventually pierced a fresh high at 2203.50, then reacted down to 2197.75. The 5-point slide is now trying to bounce back into the range.
If, then…
Probing overnight above Monday night’s 2203.00 high doesn’t qualify as retesting it intraday, so its attraction remains outstanding. Also outstanding is the 2220.00 objective, which was put into play by closing above 2192.00 Monday. Meanwhile, Tuesday afternoon’s recovery gained traction, and the session confirmed Monday’s breakout. None of which prevents a reaction down Wednesday, despite the likely and least likely windows all having passed as Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness arrives. Wednesday’s econ calendar has plenty of catalysts, from the morning’s high-profile and/or reliably influential reports, through the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2201.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.