S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No influential pre-open reports greet Friday’s abbreviated session. And the afternoon’s Rig Count might have been released already on Wednesday. Beware of illiquidity which makes trending difficult, especially beyond any prior extremes.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
?Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2206.25 | 2204.25 |
| …would target | 2211.50 | 2209.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2200.75 | 2198.75 |
| …would target | 2193.50 | 2191.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY… The chaRTroom will be open with Globex through 1:00pm ET, which re-opens Thursday at 6:00pm.
Attacking the afternoon’s 2101.25 bias-up signal to within 1 tick had a chilling effect. Even the FOMC Minutes didn’t shake price action loose from a 2-3 point range since the noon hour’s exit.
Hovering at session highs could have just as easily drifted to the session’s lower-end. Sponsorship for a breakout is difficult to attract when everyone’s running out the door. But halfway through the position-squaring window, price did start firming. It barely pierced 2202.25 and closed positive 1 point vs. Tuesday’s cash session close.
An offsetting test of Wednesday morning’s 2204.25 bias-up signal had been put into play by holding a test of the bias-down signal. An intraday retest of Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is still required, regardless of having pierced it by 2 ticks Tuesday’s night. The other “unfinished business above” is the 2220.00 objective put into play by closing above 2192.00.
By the way, 2192.00 has been tested thoroughly as support. If tested again — whether before or after testing 2220.00 above — it’s likely to be probed by a downleg instead of holding again.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Quickly probing fresh lows Wednesday morning was ultimately maintained to fulfill the unfinished business below. Additionally, the 1.0540 target was tested and held. This isn’t necessarily a bottom, and a second consecutive lower close would confirm the decline’s momentum remains intact. But it’s an opportunity for a low, and we’ll now monitor for a reversal setup to develop.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s plunge sliced through the outstanding 1196.50 target down to 1181.20.Regardless of the sizeable one-day break, having originated from a multi-session range makes it a breakout, which a second consecutive lower close would confirm. Meanwhile, bounces should hold 1194.00 as resistance to maintain the decline’s momentum. Closing above 1201.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows Wednesday morning down to 16.15 provided the selling attempt still needed to prove whether a bottom has been forming. But closing back above 16.62 is still needed to even begin suggesting a bottom is forming — preferably without a second consecutive lower close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking down to fresh lows at 151-19 on Wednesday’s pre-open Durable Goods report didn’t prove decisively whether the recent ranging is now resolving down. Bouncing probed back into the range to test 153-00, so the next session’s resolution in either direction would become vulnerable to extending in that direction again.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s last-minute surge up to 48.55 was rejected by gapping down Wednesday to test 47.45, but the gap was filled in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. None of which is necessarily bearish, so probing fresh recovery highs is likely.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming again Wednesday probed more decisively above the prior two sessions for a better chance at fulfilling the rally’s outstanding requirement for a third higher close. Closing above 3.08 would signal a bigger rally underway, but there otherwise remains attractions to 2-3 gaps below.
Mid-day Update… Good news is bad.
Rate hike clues about to be released.
We’ve been discussing for almost two months how the market has adapted to the potential for a rate hike. Knee-jerk reactions not withstanding, price action following good and bad econ reports has suggested getting it behind us would be bullish. Of course the actual FOMC decision would trigger a dip. But the ultimate resolution would likelier be a strong rally as that bad news becomes history.
So, this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes might trigger a knee-jerk reaction down if they reflect a willingness to raise rates. But that’s largely anticipated, so a dip would likely be temporary.
A deeper drop could follow Minutes that suggest less hawkishness. And similar to a rate hike’s knee-jerk reaction up, dovish language in the Minutes would likely first trigger a knee-jerk reaction up.
Some higher high remains likely at some point to satisfy this morning’s 2204.25 objective. Exiting the bias environment under 2104.00 would delay that upside objective for another day.
Don’t forget that after the FOMC Minutes reactions, the only influence is volume quickly evaporating ahead of the holiday. Try to avoid getting caught in an illiquid market, or expecting sponsorship to break beyond a range.