S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review this weekend due to the holiday. Have a great weekend, chaRTroom will re-open with Globex on Sunday night.
Friday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility were glued to 2205.50. This suggested almost instantly that the holiday-shortened session would likely not be volatile. That made trending very far very difficult.
But the 2204.25 bias-up signal did trigger, putting into play its 2209.50 bias-up target. Almost three hours of a 6-tick range around 2207.50 finally broke higher within minutes of the close. The 2209.50 target was met, on the way to test 2211.00 after the close.
Now the 2220.00 objective created above 2192.00 is the only “unfinished business above.” Gapping down Monday would make Friday’s close become unfinished business, too. And it could remain unfinished throughout a detour dip, which is likely as the target is approached.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 28, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Nothing among Monday’s econ reports that is either high-profile or influential to price action. Except that this being the beginning of the week, any surprises or extreme readings could generate a reaction.
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Post-open Review… The tryptophan lingers.
Very narrow opening range.
The fluctuated narrowly around 2205.50 through 9:45 to avoid any preliminary signal. The 2204.25 bias-up signal was no more or less likely to trigger at 10:15.
It triggered.
Price meanwhile improved up to 2207.75, which neutralizes all “new Globex trend extremes.” Only the 2220.00 target remains outstanding, which triggered Monday above 2192.00.
Unfortunately, there’s no assurance of extending this morning, or of drifting back down. The open lacked volatility, not even attempting to trend by 9:45, let alone succeeding or being rejected.
The upside still gets a benefit of the doubt since bias-up triggered. Its 2209.50 bias-up target need not be met today. Back under 2205.00 would start becoming attracted back down to 2192.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip to 2202.50 has held, and the 2207.25 overnight high has been attacked to within 1 point. Some indication of upside traction through the open could drift higher into the early close. Similarly, a failed attempt to gain upside traction could drift lower. Not attempting to gain traction would suggest the balance of the session will either fluctuate narrowly, or unpredictably.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holiday high.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s retest of 2192.00 support had held, as its test had held Tuesday morning. It hasn’t actually been probed since being exceeded Monday afternoon, which put into play 2220.00. But even the holiday’s seasonal bullishness couldn’t offset the evaporating volume, limiting strength to only attack 2202.50. More “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2204.25 as price firmed into a positive close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday night’s initial dip back down to 2197.50 was recovered to attack 2202.50 into Europe’s opens. The resistance held until Thursday morning, which broke higher to new highs at 2207.00 before 1:00pm close. Thursday night’s action didn’t extend higher, but its reaction down has held 2202.50 as support.
If, then…
The 2220.00 target is essentially the only unfinished business above. It provides a safety line of sorts in case of another attempted downleg. Interestingly, so does Monday night’s 2203.00 “new Globex trend extreme.” It requires intraday retest, and only attacking it to within 3 ticks does not qualify. Today’s early close typically makes today the year’s least liquid sessions. So, getting a toehold above any unfinished business could marginalize sellers for the day, allowing the balance of the session to drift higher. By the same token, neutralizing any unfinished business without maintaining its recovery through a relevant window could drift back down relentlessly, to and (on the way) through 2192.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2205.50 would be likely to trigger the 2204.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2200 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. PROGRAMMING NOTE: THERE IS NO AFTERNOON BIAS DUE TO THE EARLY CLOSE.