S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s open gapped down to 1.0915 and probed under it several times, but continually returned to 1.0915 to avoid a clean break under it that would require extending to fresh lows before the next credible rally effort can begin.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A shallower bounce than Tuesday night’s test of 1291.50 was reversed down again into Thursday’s open, and extended lower under 1266.00 down to 1258.00 before returning to 1266.00. The next lower objective at 1252.50 would be in-in play unless 1275.00 were recovered first.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Thursday within Wednesday’s range seemingly awaited Gold’s resolution to its attraction below. Regardless, closing back above 18.80 would signal at least a retest of Tuesday night’s rally to 19.00.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Without already trying to bounce overnight out of Wednesday’s intraday plunge to new lows, lower lows targeting 155-30 are likely to be fulfilled before a credible recovery attempt can begin.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat or flat-to-lower ranging Thursday does not fulfill the requirement to quickly validate Wednesday’s test of 45.70 resistance. The window remains open for a break above it until it holds another test, and so long as 44.15 holds as support.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday held 2.60 support and largely remained within Wednesday’s range throughout an otherwise muted reaction to the morning’s EIA report. The first breakout from this setup in either direction would not be reliable for extending until confirmed the following day.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Banks are closed Friday for Veteran’s Day, but markets remain open. The morning’s only econ report is post-open, high-profile, and tends to be influential to price action. The afternoon’s rig count hasn’t influenced price action during the past several weeks, but that may have been a function of Crude Oil’s decline which has reached its target.
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2170.50 | 2166.50 |
| …would target | 2177.00 | 2173.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2154.25 | 2150.50 |
| …would target | 2148.00 | 2144.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… (Delayed due to connectivity issues)
Opening bounce meets post-open plunge.
Opening at 2168.00 never dipped any deeper before soon resolving up sharply. But the 2180.50 overnight high — essentially the rally’s next higher objective — was only attacked to test resistance at 2178.00 before reversing back down.
And down. And down.
The 2171.00 bias-up target was retraced aggressively, on the way down to touch the 2164.25 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. 
The 2154.25 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks at 10:30, just when its offsetting test was being triggered by a late no-bias signal.
But this morning’s no-bias wouldn’t be completely satisfied by the offsetting test of signals. Having tested the bias-up target, an offsetting test of the bias-down target was required, too. So the drop extended down to probe the 2148.75 bias down target by 1 point.
Bouncing back up to 2160.00 was retraced entirely. Its reaction down and a couple of shallower bounces have formed a Descending Triangle pattern. Attempts to reject it back above 2156.00 and 2160.00 are ongoing — the bias environment began lapsing at 2156.00, and now the noon hour entry is testing 2160.00.
Entering the noon hour above 2160.00 would be credible for launching a retest of overnight highs. The morning’s drop was dramatic and substantial, but not otherwise relevant since yesterday afternoon’s bias environment low has not been broken. Not resuming the rally today wouldn’t necessarily be bearish — not so long as fresh lows are avoided.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
This morning’s 2171.00 pullback limit held the first reaction down from the 2180.50 overnight high, bouncing 8 points. Bouncing off of its retest was shallower and briefer, and temporary, breaking lower to test yesterday afternoon’s “lower prior highs” down to 2165.00. Since the rally gained traction yesterday, resuming it or inverting it should be obvious within the first several post-open minutes.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.