S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing off of the 2151.25 overnight low has extended up to 2161.50. Reacting down 5 points from there is essentially greeting this morning’s open at its 2157.50 bias-down signal. There’s no requirement to resolve in either direction in any particular time frame. But the morning’s bias — putting into play the bias-down target, or an offsetting test of the bias-up signal — is likely to define price action through the noon hour.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Wider orbit.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s reaction down from 2175.50 stopped short of Its minimum objective to probe under 2160.00, and only attacked 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. No bounce developed, and the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Wednesday’s late-afternoon ~2168.00 high. That was under the morning’s 2178.50 high, which had stopped short of the 2180.50 overnight high. And 2180.00 had been the rally’s next higher objective.
Overnight action’s new info…
A slightly deeper dip still stopped short of 2160.00 before bouncing to 2170.50..But a drop that began with Europe’s opens has extended down sharply to test this morning’s 2151.75 bias-down target by 2 ticks. Its reaction is attacking 2160.00.
If, then…
Probing the prior day’s high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Yesterday’s close was AT Wednesday’s high, which doesn’t represent any stronger of a rally. Overnight action has dipped deeper, but remains within yesterday’s range, which also qualifies as orbiting around Wednesday’s high. Extending the rally still can’t afford much of a delay to resuming post-open, or else a much deeper pullback will develop. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias often persists through the noon hour — and there’s plenty of room below for a correction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2154.25 would be likely to trigger the 2157.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2160.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2176.00 | 2172.25 |
| …would target | 2183.25 | 2179.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2161.25 | 2157.50 |
| …would target | 2155.50 | 2151.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s reaction down from 2175.50 was extended to attack 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. But the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around the close-quarters Double Top that had defined Wednesday’s late-afternoon high. Probing the prior day’s high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Closing AT the prior high isn’t really any stronger. So, extending the rally on this leg probably can’t afford much of a delay, or else a much deeper pullback will become likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Pacing itself.
Rally hovering just under highs.
Post-open rallying through this morning was derailed by such substantial selling pressure that it reversed down from being up 18 points at 2178.50. The reversal down was so substantial that both bias-up parameters were rejected, and the bias-down signal was almost triggered, too.
But the reversal proved no more durable than the post-open surge. Perhaps less so. The 30-point point plunge to 2147.75 was substantial. Its abrupt origin and its steep slope were dramatic. But it was never actually productive, since it barely touched Wednesday afternoon’s low. And it wasn’t durable, since it recovered all but 3 points to the 2175.50 afternoon’s high.
None of which is being exploited. The position-squaring window is being greeted 10 points off of the recovery high, back down at the 2165.00 afternoon lows. Extending down would target a test of 2160.00, if not also an attack on 2154.00. Otherwise, back above 2168.75 could resume the rally to fresh session highs.