S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2144.75 | 2140.75 |
| …would target | 2149.75 | 2145.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2134.50 | 2130.50 |
| …would target | 2129.25 | 2125.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Rallying to fresh highs Tuesday morning should not be durable, since the prior day’s buyers gained no traction, which wasn’t offset by a gap up. That’s excessive optimism. The intraday probe was retraced to only attack Monday’s prior high, which is also excessive optimism. All of which followed the morning’s bias-down being rejected, fairly, but still a product of optimism.
The market’s optimism is a belief that its candidate will win. A decisive victory tonight would probably be cause for at least some more optimistic behavior, no matter how much optimism that Tuesday’s rally already discounted. But an indecisive result can only encourage selling. And in today’s Market Wrap, I describe why Tuesday’s session makes a poor base to try launching any probe higher.
I’ll be checking the chaRTroom regularly during election results, and annotating the chart where possible.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down Tuesday can confirm Monday’s break from the failed Ascending Triangle, targeting 1.1010 and potentially 1.0965, so long as the rally’s 1.1100 is not recovered. Having originated from a failed Ascending Triangle, a complete recovery would be likely.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially bouncing Tuesday to 1291.50 didn’t prevent retesting the 1284.00 pullback limit that was already broken through Monday’s close, and even deeper to attack 1273.00. Closing back above 1286.00 would undermine the selling pressure, but momentum reversing up requires a close back above 1291.50
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly extended sharply higher Tuesday morning, filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s high close.Closing above prior lows keeps alive the upside momentum.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Finally breaking under the 162-16 sell signal Tuesday morning extended down to attack the 161-22 prior lows that had formed only a temporary bottom, still targeting fresh lows at 160-10.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only firming slightly Tuesday suggests that the decline is not rejected and a new low will be in-play. But calculating the next lower target’s objective requires a corrective bounce to develop, targeting 45.70 or 48.25, perhaps in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close APA report and/or Wednesday’s EIA report.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not even threatening to recover 2.88-2.91 Monday has resolved by gapping down again Tuesday to fresh lows testing 2.74. No scenario Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Pre-close View… Back to the counting room.
Afternoon pullback could be done.
Rallying above yesterday’s highs before late-afternoon today was unlikely without gapping up. Rallying without gapping up is likely to reverse down. As of late-afternoon, rallying 13 points above yesterday’s 2130.00 high has been retraced entirely, to 2130.00.
The impatience should also have a punitive consequence that retraces back into negative territory. Back under 2131.75 would target 2127.75. It was this afternoon’s bias-down signal, but doesn’t require being tested. Its break would target 2121.25 and potentially 2113.50.
Back above 2136.25 could avoid any punitive damage, and would start to signal a retest of the 2143.25 high probably up to 2145.75.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Apparently, exit polling IS influencing Tuesday’s intraday price action. Objective, or not, it can still be influential — not only to price action, but to those yet to vote. So, Tuesday evening results might prove either discounted, or wrong. Otherwise, the afternoon’s Fed speaker is Wednesday’s only other scheduled influential item.
U.S. Presidential Election results
TUE NIGHT
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:30 PM ET