S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2141.50 | 2137.50 |
| …would target | 2146.50 | 2142.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2131.75 | 2127.75 |
| …would target | 2125.25 | 2121.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Choppy range.
Fresh pullback low holds yesterday’s range.
The 2122.50 immediately extended down to touch yesterday’s late 2119.25 low. Its reaction up to 2124.25 was retraced entirely. The next reaction up has extended to attack yesterday’s cash session close at 2126.50.
But meanwhile the 2123.50 bias-down signal triggered at 10:15. It triggered cleanly. Bouncing to touch it at 10:30 did not actually recover it, so it is not invalidated. One more opportunity to invalidate it would recover the 2132.50 bias-up signal at 11:30. But that’s unlikely since yesterday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction, which wasn’t invalidated by the open gapping up.
None of which prevents filling the gap back up to yesterday’s 2129.00 futures close. Or actually testing the 2132.50 bias-up signal. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2122.75 and 2121.25 would trigger a drop to fresh session lows. The 2118.25 bias-down target’s test would likely be probed down to 2113.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Reacting back down to test 2123.50 hasn’t been retraced this time. Being this morning’s bias-down signal, not recovering it could extend down another 10 points. Similarly, holding its test would put into play an objective nearly 10 points above. The latter scenario would fulfill yesterday’s “session-long rally” influence by trending up the next morning, but this instance of the setup isn’t very reliable.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding on.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up on the FBI’s Clinton news formed a “session-long rally” setup. It was less reliable for having formed over a weekend. But intraday timing windows complied, anyway, with all but one probing above its prior timing window’s high. The exception was the final hour, which dipped 5-1/2 points from attacking 2125.00. Rallying 10-1/2 points through to test 2130.00 could be dismissed for barely probing fresh highs while the position-squaring window had begun lapsing.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gapping back down slightly at the Globex open extended through the afternoon’s mid-day “lower prior highs” defined by 2123.50, and into the late pullback’s consolidation at 2121.25. The drop was fully retraced to retest 2130.00. Another reaction down is now attacking 2123.50.
If, then…
Continued compliance with Monday’s “session-long rally” would probe higher this morning, if not actually trend. The next higher attractions 2134.00 and 2138.00. But not gaining traction yesterday requires gapping up to launch any durable trend. So, rallying without gapping up would be likely to reverse down this afternoon. Neither gapping up nor rallying could repeat the overnight pullback, but probably not hold support at Monday’s mid-day “lower prior highs” that already held overnight. So, a pullback would more likely target 2118.25, and possibly 2113.50 before suggesting yesterday’s rally is actually reversing down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2121.25 would be likely to trigger the 2123.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2137.50 | 2132.50 |
| …would target | 2142.75 | 2138.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2128.25 | 2123.50 |
| …would target | 2123.25 | 2118.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.