S&P
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2128.75 | 2123.75 |
| …would target | 2133.75 | 2128.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2123.25 | 2118.25 |
| …would target | 2118.00 | 2113.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Onward, upward, etc.
Gap up maintained, extended.
The open’s immediate bobble held a quick test of the 2108.75 pullback limit before extending back up to and through the 2111.00-2112.00 overnight highs. Sellers are likely marginalized for at least the morning.
A running correction / rising wedge formed up to 2114.00. The pattern was entered and exited aggressively, then forming a potential plateau. Dipping back down into the wedge to 2112.00 could refuel the rally, but any lower could reverse the uptrend.
Avoiding any pullback from the plateau, and instead extending higher, could marginalize sellers for another 1-2 uplegs. That would easily get to and through 2120.00-2121.00, if not also to 2134.00 and 2138.00.
The plateau is actually resolving up now. The next opportunity for correcting down temporarily is likely from 2120.00-2121.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is being greeted by firming back to the overnight range’s upper-end, attacking 2111.00-2112.00. Just holding 2108.75 should keep the bias upward, and also begin a corrective rally. Otherwise, the attraction to Thursday and Friday’s “lower prior highs” at 2094.00-2097.50 could come into play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Skeweeze.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2084.25 open was essentially flat with Thursday’s 2083.25 close, and soon probed Thursday’s late low under 2080.00 down to 2079.00. Bouncing into the noon hour to test 2094.00 didn’t prevent retracing it all into the weekend, the final weekend before this week’s U.S. Presidential elections.
Overnight action’s new info…
The FBI on/off effect was immediate. Both in terms of triggering a 26-point gap up to 2106.00, and in the overnight action only ranging around 2106.00. Choppily, down to 2103.00 and up to 2112.00. And now another attack on 2106.00 as support trying to bounce again.
If, then…
Room for noise under the decline’s 2082.00 target down to 2077.50 had been attacked to within 2 points. It does not become unfinished business below. But the gap back does, although it can be “filled” by proxy back down to Thursday-Friday’s 2094.00-2097.50 highs. Meanwhile, a corrective rally may be underway, especially so long as the opening 15 minutes of volatility gets out above 2108.75. The next set of “higher prior lows” begins at 2114.00, from which overnight action has hovered pessimistically short. The next higher set gets to 2120.00-2121.00, which is also a 61.8% retracement back to two-week old highs. Any higher would start targeting 2134.00 and 2138.00. After trending down into its close, gapping above the prior afternoon’s highs forms a “session-long rally,” but it’s intraday effects can be less reliable when there is a weekend in between.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] The open is too far removed from the Bias parameters for any early indications.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
There being no Saturday Review this weekend, Friday’s Market Wrap was slightly extended to include the Bigger Picture review, along with its usual other markets coverage.
View the post-market Wrap recording here.
Sunday at 6:00pm ET, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.