S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.50 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2096.25 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.00 | 2077.50 |
| …would target | 2077.50 | 2072.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP RENEWED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s return into Wednesday’s range prevented forming an Island Reversal. Still hovering at Wednesday’s upper-end Friday may prevent reversing back under 1.1100 before extending up to 1.1195. But closing back under 1.1100 would still suggest the bounce had ended already.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow fluctuation Friday kept alive the potential for producing the minimum requirement for a third higher close before any deeper pullback.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback low wasn’t retested or attacked Friday, despite initial weakness, suggesting that the attraction to a new relative high close remains intact and in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s choppy open was again attracted back to 163-02, which again bounced to attack 163-27 resistance. A bigger bounce remains unlikely, although closing above 164-08 would suggest something more substantial to the upside is underway. Otherwise, back under 162-16 would likely trigger a break to fresh lows targeting 160-10.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The downleg that triggered under 50.80 got off to a slow and shallow start. Its decline contained a shallow consolidation. And it has extended to fulfill its 43.75 target. Already fulfilling the objective suggests that a corrective bounce will resolve in an even lower low, and probably not just hold a retest of 43.75.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow range at recent lows doesn’t reject their break, but it maintains the potential for closing Monday above 2.88.to end the decline’s momentum or above 3.00 to reverse the trend back up.
Mid-day Update…
REMINDER: Market Wrap will begin early at 3:33pm ET, and it will include the Bigger Picture review since there is NO Saturday Review this weekend.
Holding the 2082.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2088.75 bias-up signal. And its test was likely to include a test of 2091.00. Ultimately 2192.25 was touched, but always overlapping 2091.00. And it was retraced back down to 2087.50.
But the vulnerability to reversing back down to and through the lows remains outstanding. The noon hour probed fresh highs, and the 2091.00 bias-up signal has triggered. Sellers are likely marginalized for the day.
Already backing off from testing the 2096.25 bias-up target would make the final hour vulnerable to reversing down. Again, reversing intraday trending on Fridays at all is very unusual, but there have been recent exceptions. And there’s still that attraction below…
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 7, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ reports have no track record for influencing price action. But they’re much less of a focus with elections one day away.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2096.25 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2101.25 | 2096.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2188.25 | 2083.25 |
| …would target | 2082.25 | 2077.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.