S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday back under Tuesday’s highs could have formed an Island of Wednesday’s probe above the 1.1100 target. But Thursday’s post-open bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close and probed back into Wednesday’s range. There is now no “unfinished business above” to ensure a recovery if a decline were to begin.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tumbling overnight exploited almost all the room below for a pullback attacking 1283.50-1286.00. Thursday’s gap down had already begun recovering, and the morning;s bounce extended back above 1300.00. An eventual third higher close is in-play.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dropping sharply overnight to test its 18.05 pullback limit was reversed back up Thursday. An eventual third higher close is in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing to and through the 163-02 bounce limit over two days has led to the third day gapping back down under 163-02. While the bottoming attempt around 161-22 is probably not complete, Friday’s Employment Situation report isn’t necessarily being greeted from a position of weakness — reacting down to fresh lows and then closing higher would seal a bottom, especially if the fresh lows had visited 160-10.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting up to 45.70 resistance Thursday was reversed back down to fresh lows under 45.00. The decline’s ultimate 43.75 objective would be lowered if met by the current uncorrected downleg.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength. But its reaction was muted, and not necessarily any more bearish than already being at fresh lows. Closing back above 2.88 would be the earliest signal of a bottom forming.
Mid-day Update… Digging deeper.
Noon hour lows not recovering.
This morning’s noN-bias environment only ranged choppily, which is normal. But when the environment came within view of lapsing, the ranging persisted. And when the environment began lapsing, the range persisted. Extending the overnight recovery was becoming less and less likely.
In fact, a break lower into the noon hour fell 7 points to test the setup’s 1286.25 target. Isolating the probe to the noon hour could have been as bullish as the overnight dip’s isolation could have been. But neither seems to be. This afternoon’s 1289.75 bias-down signal triggered, and an attempt to invalidate it just failed.
Trending aggressively would be unusual ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report. So, while a recovery today may not be likely, a bottom today is still possible. But bottoming at all isn’t required, as that needed at least to greet Payrolls already in rally mode.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is reliable for influencing price action. It’s the first high-profile report since Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, and it’s accompanied by a the week’s first Fed speaker. Friday’s volatility is kept alive by an afternoon Fed speaker.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.00 | 2099.00 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2105.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.50 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No decision, is decision.
noN-bias takes the edge away from sellers.
Ranging around this morning’s 2095.50 bias-down signal began reacting down into and out of the open, Bouncing to attack 2098.00 was reversed down to 2091.50, twice. But the 2095.50 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.
And it was being retested at 10:30 to avoid triggering. This is not bias-up requiring fresh highs. It is not no-bias requiring fresh lows. It is noN-bias, requiring nothing.
Fresh highs above 2097.00-2098.00 (being tested now) would still be credible for extending higher, isolating the overnight dip, and eventually rallying more obviously this afternoon. Breaking under 2093.00 would still be credible for probing lower, but not necessarily so low as to reinstate the decline.