S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Hovering at the overnight recovery highs attacking 2099.00 has been supported by the 2095.50 bias-up signal. Not triggering it would put into play an offsetting test of the 2088.00 bias-down signal, but may as well target a probe under the overnight lows. So, rallying today requires not only avoiding negative territory through the open, but also may require triggering this morning’s bias-up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Oh, what a night.
. Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had recovered overnight up to 2104.00-2105.00 after dropping 10 points under it. The overnight dip had stopped short of retesting Tuesday’s 2091.00 low as required by its oversold RSIs. The open’s rally attempt only reached 2106.50 before reversing down into and out of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. The afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down target was pierced by 1 tick, taking RSIs oversold again. Its reaction attacked 2100.00, but only briefly as the close trended back down to attack the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially bouncing was resisted upon testing Tuesday night’s 2095.00 support as resistance. Suddenly plunging extended down to 2084.00. The probe under prior lows was a singular leg, so not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest. RSIs diverged positively on its retest, helping to launch a recovery that has probed more than 6 points into positive territory attacking 2099.00.
If, then…
Did last night’s drop to 2084.00 satisfy the decline targeting 2082.00? Similar to the room it has down to 2077.50, resistance above it begins at 2084.50. Its test last night would qualify. If retested, the objective would target the noise range’s 2077.50 lower-end. In any case, isolating the probe of fresh trend lows to the overnight window — as is currently indicated by having recovered into positive territory — could begin a multi-session momentum reversal back up. Just in time for tomorrow’s Employment Situation report. But anything more than retesting yesterday’s oversold RSIs at its low must be avoided, if not negative territory altogether.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.00 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2104.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2101.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2091.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.50 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2107.00 | 2101.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2093.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2088.00 | 2082.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The ongoing series of lower intraday lows persisted Wednesday, with yet another lower close, as well. Keeping the decline intact had been maintained by oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s 2091.00 low. Oversold RSIs accompanied Wednesday’s 2087.75 low — which formed when retesting Tuesday’s low and fulfilling Wednesday’s 2088.00 bias-down target. It’s a circle of life that keeps the decline intact.
And the decline is targeting 2082.00 with room down to 2077.50. Testing the lower target(s) Thursday before Friday’s payrolls would allow a reaction up to greet the report in a position of strength. Not yet resolving the lower attraction could force a resolution down. The most bullish scenario might be to gap up Thursday and ignore the lower attractions altogether.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… No RSI left behind!
Fresh lows stuck under prior highs.
The noon hour’s consolidation above 2097.00 started breaking lower coming out of the noon hour. Bouncing off of 2092.00 blipped up to 2097.00 in reaction to the FOMC statement. Blipping-up then blapped down, aggressively, to 2087.25.
That fulfilled the 2088.00 bias-down target. And a steep recovery from there exited the bias environment back above its 2093.50 bias-down signal to attack 2100.00. Now 2093.50 is being retested at the final hour’s entry.
Oversold RSIs at the 2087.25 low require an eventual retest, probably down to 2082.00, with room down to 2077.50. Unless 2098.00 were recovered quickly, extending above 2100.00 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window, the low’s retest is likely.