S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s correction of the recently started rally was already resolving at Monday’s gap up. The 1.1100 target was attacked up to 1.1090, and remains in-play so long as pullbacks hold 1.1050.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up above the recent test of 1283.50 resistance to 1286.50 extended to 1292.00 and hovered. Above 1293.00 would next target 1304.50, but meanwhile recent “lower prior highs” down to 1275.00 all but require a retest before a credible recovery could begin.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already firming after Monday’s close at 17.80 resistance then rallied overnight to greet Tuesday’s open gapping up at 18.25, and then extended higher intraday to test 18.52. A pullback has room down to 18.05 before signaling at least a significant correction underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for bouncing up to 163-02 had not been fully utilized before reversing down overnight to attack recent lows to within 5-6 ticks at 161-26. Bouncing into the open allowed only a slightly lower gap down, which immediately reversed down to fresh lows at 161-22. An actual probe of fresh lows is likely before a credible bottoming attempt — which had better become obvious soon if Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Friday’s Employment Situation report will be greeted bullishly.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Two separate overnight probes under Monday’s low each bounced, the second one being accompanied by RSIs diverging positively. But a corrective bounce having room up to 47.50-47.70 was ignored as the decline extended down to 46.25, targeting 45.70 and potentially 43.75.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s doomed gap up had retraced already back into low’s consolidation, and extended down overnight to fulfill the 2.97 low’s retest. Extending down through the open tested and held the 2.87 extended target where a credible recovery could start forming.
Mid-day Update… Down and downer.
The downtrend persists.
Not recovering intraday above 2124.25-2125.00 resistance was likely to probe under Friday’s 2112.50 low.
The open didn’t have to actually be at resistance, but it was. And post-open action trended straight down.
The 2111.25 late bias-down target was attacked as the bias environment began lapsing. And it was met as the noon hour was entered. Having probed fresh trend lows, a bottom was free to begin forming.
Or, not.
The next lower target of 2105.00 was just attacked to within 3 ticks. It’s also this afternoon’s bias-down target, yet to be triggered, but it won’t become “unfinished business below” having attacked it to within 3 ticks. And RSIs have been making higher lows — higher oversold lows, but during the noon hour, which doesn’t require a retest.
Back above 2108.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. The signal was just touched while testing the current bounce limit. If a recovery doesn’t catch, then the next lower targets are 2095.00 and 2082.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The proximity to reporting monthly employment data brings with it several private takes on the picture. ADP’s report is controversial, but reaction to it helps to fine-tune our expectations for Friday. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s FOMC meeting isn’t likely to finally rate hikes, but harsher language warning of it could be as influential to price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2123.25 | 2117.00 |
| …would target | 2128.00 | 2122.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2117.00 | 2111.00 |
| …would target | 2111.25 | 2105.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Resistance held.
Essentially straight down since the open.
Opening at 2125.00 quickly began sinking. The 2124.25-2125.00 intraday resistance held, and the gap back to yesterday’s close was filled down to 2119.50. Lower and lower lows have extended down to 2115.50.
The 2117.75 bias-down signal defined support momentarily, and now it is defining resistance. Overlapping it at 10:15 has invoked the grace period through 10:30.
An optimal “late bias-down” would probe under 2115.50 through 10:30. Probing under Friday’s 2112.50 low would allow a bottom to form, but its test is likely to visit 2105.00. And that would be vulnerable to extending down to 2095.00 and 2082.00.
Not triggering the 2117.75 bias-down signal at 10:15 might bounce back up to yesterday’s 2120.00 and 2120.75 futures and cash session closes. That’s also yesterday’s “higher prior lows.” Further strength than that would be unlikely.
Still overlapping 2117.75 at 10:30 would trigger “noN-bias” and have now required outcome today.