S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Retracing the overnight bounce to 2129.50 has tested and retested the 2123.00 area. Holding under 2124.25-2125.00 or quickly rejecting a probe above it would keep alive the likelihood for breaking under yesterday’s 2119.00-2120.00 lows, and to at least retest Friday’s 2112.50 low. Otherwise, recovering 2124.25-2125.00 would make Friday’s 2135.25 high become a bigger attraction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Done waiting.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s session was choppy but only ranged around Friday’s close. It was narrower than the overnight range, which was narrower than Friday’s range. But there was at least one predictive feature. The morning’s 2120.00 low stopped optimistically short of touching Friday’s lows. And it was retested after an intraday bounce had probed fresh post-open highs. The first bounce is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Returning to the bounce’s origin all but requires at least an obligatory low. It had become too late to attract sponsorship for breaking lower, making another interim bounce likely, first.
Overnight action’s new info…
Last night’s range is wider than Monday’s. The Globex open quickly fulfilled the intraday corrective bounce potential up to 2124.25-2125.00. But there was greater potential for extending the corrective bounce overnight. It was fulfilled by only attacking yesterday’s 2130.50 intraday high to within 1 point. Its reaction down to 2123.25 bounced 4 points, but that bounce is now reacting back down through 2124.25-2125.00.
If, then…
Monday’s relatively narrow range was disappointing. Especially after Friday’s luscious volatility of a failed recovery and its deep drop. But Monday’s multiple fluctuations between positive and negative territory kept volatility alive. And last night’s range was as wide or wider than Monday. Perhaps anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s somewhat predictable FOMC policy statement has already had a paralyzing effect. Still ranging narrowly through today is a lot of patience to ask of the market. Holding under 2124.25-2125.00 post-open would keep alive the likelihood for a pessimistic dive under Monday’s 2119.00-2120.00 lows, retesting Friday’s 2112.50 low down to 2105.00, and possibly another 10 or 25 points lower. Avoiding any pessimistic dive today would make a bigger bounce likely, and then its failure.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2127.75 would be likely to trigger the 2125.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2124.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2116.00 would be likely to trigger the 2117.75 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2131.25 | 2125.50 |
| …would target | 2137.50 | 2131.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2123.50 | 2117.75 |
| …would target | 2117.00 | 2111.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Hay, made it through the entire day without a single spooky Halloween reference! Oh, wait. Darn…
Still hovering at the morning’s low without rejecting it suggests at least an obligatory break lower is coming. Having hovered there for so long without yet breaking, more than just an obligatory break may require a shallow bounce, first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Prone.
Firming off of support.
This morning’s 2120.00 low was retested by 1 point. But it is getting a little late to break out from the range. And final hour wasn’t entered any lower than the bias environment range, despite exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low.
So, corrective bounce potential up to 2124.25-2125.00 is in-play. A bounce is still likely to resolve down, although that lateness again makes it difficult. Stopping short of its bounce potential might be the only path down today.
This morning’s original low developed over 5-10 minutes, but its retest lasted 45 minutes — not much of a rejection. But still likely to resolve down after a bounce. And there’s really no bullish reason to retest the morning’s low, since its bounce was already productive. So, any bounce is likely only temporary, whether or not resolving down today.