S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday from Friday’s bounce hasn’t invalidated the upside momentum still having potential to 1.1100.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s open gapped down from Friday’s late surge and its post-close extension that had ultimately tested and held 1283.50. Narrow ranging intraday didn’t try resuming the rally, but also doesn’t make 1266.00 and 1252.50 likelier yet to be tested in reaction.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s price action hugged the 17.80 resistance whose recovery would start to signal a new upleg possibly forming.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Monday back up to Friday’s 162-23 high still has potential for testing 163-02 before one more probe of fresh lows prior to this week’s Employment Situation report.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows extended down further Monday, now requiring bounces to hold 47.50-47.70 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s failure to already recover 3.12 doomed to failure Monday morning’s probe above it. Gapping up to test 3.16 was reversed throughout the morning back into negative territory and into last week’s Symmetrical Triangle, testing 3.03. Fresh lows are likely before a rally would be credible.
Mid-day Update… More errands!
Dry cleaners morning seems to contagious.
This morning’s bias environment suddenly plunged from 2125.25 and tested 2120.00 several minutes later. 
That ended quickly, as the balance of the window firmed back up to 2125.25.
Then an interesting thing happened: The bias environment began lapsing by surging to fresh post-open highs. That ended quickly, too, retesting the morning’s “lower prior highs.”
Interesting. Productive sponsorship between timing windows is rarely overwhelmed. So, surging to fresh highs as the bias environment began lapsing should have extended. But it did not. Even knowing the likely resolution is down, and that fresh lows must precede any credible rally — something interesting was attempted.
I’ll have to dismiss it for now. Its inflection point was validated by immediately extending at least 5 ticks. But its 3-minute high never improved. And now another timing window’s entry has signaled a reversal down.
So, the noon hour’s probe down to 2123.50 is being retested by 1 point as the afternoon’s bias environment begins. It’s triggering “no-bias” without either bias signal having been tested. Trending out of the bias environment lapsing would be credible again. That late would be difficult for a rally today to reverse back down today, but no rally should be durable without first probing under Friday’s lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s PMI and ISM numbers are reliable for influencing price action, despite Monday’s PMI miss not having had much impact.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2134.75 | 2128.75 |
| …would target | 2140.00 | 2134.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2127.00 | 2121.25 |
| …would target | 2121.25 | 2115.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dry cleaners morning.
lede .
The pre-open 5-point bounce up to 2129.00 was retraced almost entirely to open at 2125.25. Flat-to-lower since then has attacked 2121.25, whose test early enough could have been predictive. It’s still support, which is why attacking it just reacted up to 2125.25. But its test was too late to reveal whether sellers are weak-handed, or gaining sponsorship.
This are is also unchanged. Unchanged, compared to both Friday’s cash session and futures closes. So, it is natural support, and it’s not being challenged with any momentum that might better enable breaking through it or snapping back from it.
That suggests a “dry cleaners morning,” which is either unlikely to trend or will fluctuate unpredictably. The likely resolution is down, but a bounce is possible while awaiting sponsorship’s arrival. There is meanwhile room to fluctuate between the 2117.50 and 2131.00 bias signals, both of which were tested or attacked overnight.