S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2138.75 | 2132.25 |
| …would target | 2145.50 | 2139.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2129.75 | 2123.25 |
| …would target | 2124.50 | 2118.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon was ueventful. The noon hour’s 2126.50 low had been recovered in time to avoid triggering the 2128.75 bias-down signal, and the no-bias environment bounced to test its 2136.00 bias-up signal. Reacting down held the 2128.75 bias-down signal through the no-bias environment, and then broke to fresh post-open lows at 2125.00 through the futures close.
That’s back under Wednesday’s prior high, whose recovery through Friday’s open had opened the door to much highs intraday. The door remains open, since positive territory was maintained. But it must be exploited Monday in a specific way to avoid being considered as only Friday noise, and otherwise irrelevant.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send the Saturday Review link overnight .
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce was doomed to failure since Tuesday’s break had been confirmed. Friday’s gap down to probe fresh lows could fulfill the breakout’s minimum requirement with a new low close. Recovering immediately after a new low close on Fridays is unlikely without at least probing lower intraday Monday.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The week’s earlier “ineffectual optimism” had not been offset by any significant selling pressure until Friday probed fresh lows for the week. But its gap down was retraced entirely, still not much pessimism for contrarian purposes.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking fresh lows for the week greeted Friday’s open, still not having suffered much consequence for the week’s earlier “ineffectual optimism.” At least some minimal selling pressure is still likely before completing a bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 163-27 and overlapping 164-08 had not yet signaled the decline was ending, and Friday’s break back into their range didn’t suggest otherwise.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday morning’s bounce was inhibited by following two consecutive closes under the 50.80 pullback limit, and after having fulfilled the 51.50 target. Reacting down didn’t signal a new downleg underway, but only closing above 51.50 would reinstate the rally.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 3.31 optimal pullback following Thursday’s breakout was probed down to 3.26, which must hold to maintain the upside momentum and potential for extending higher anyway on Monday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 17, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speakers and a handful of high-profile econ reports define coming week, more so than the very few economic data having track records for actually influencing price action.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Stunning turn of events.
Retracing back to yesterday’s highs.
Testing and exceeding Wednesday’s 2139.50 prior high at 9:45 had put into play the next higher objective at 2144.00. Renewing the bias-up signal above its 2136.00 bias-up target at 10:15 had put it into play, too.
It was attacked to within 3 ticks, which is close enough to neutralize its attraction. RSIs diverged negatively. Potential to 2150.00 was cut short. Perhaps it was hawkish comments from BOE’s Carney that sent price down sharply.
The bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 back under its 2136.00 bias-up target, probing under its 2131.00 bias-up signal. That action would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters, if done through 10:15. Doing it through 11:30 does at least undermine that upside sponsorship.
There’s no particular downside requirement, as this action would have triggered through the open. Yesterday’s 2126.25 cash session close has only been attacked to within 2 ticks. But this is Friday. And not quickly rejecting the late-morning slide for being a temporary correction would make recovering later much less likely.
Already, the decline has extended 3-minute RSI diverging positively twice. Extending down just once more without an interim bounce would suggest the morning’s drop is about to extend substantially. Avoiding the afternoon bias-down — preferably, triggering bias-up — may be the only way to avoid melting down into the weekend.