S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking down to fresh lows Friday and then snapping back up only tested what had been “higher prior lows” of the consolidation that previously had launched three separate breaks lower. Its third break finally had been maintained through a close on Thursday, and although not confirmed by a lower second consecutive lower close, the break was not rejected and remains intact.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing only to 1166.00 resistance was reversed sharply back down to fresh lows, essentially testing the upper-end of the next lower objective’s 1237.00-1243.00 range. Closing back above Thursday’s 1252.50 lows isn’t enough to prevent follow-through on Monday.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially bouncing Friday morning proved short-lived, although the eventual reaction down held above prior lows. The potential to 17.09 that was attacked to within a nickel Thursday was attacked to within 2 cents Friday. Back above 17.80 would put the potential to the upside in a recovery
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling all downside attractions without actually closing above the 165-30 relevant level still didn’t greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. The result was to probe back under prior lows down to 164-08. And not closing above 165-30 suggests that Monday will probe fresh lows, too.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s fresh high testing 50.75 was already softening when it then reacted down to the weekly Rig Count. The dip to 49/40 didn’t much threaten the 49.00 pullback limit, still targeting 51.50.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The week’s restrained optimism finally became a little unleashed by gapping up Friday and probing fresh recovery highs at 3.22. 3.12-3.15 3.28.
Mid-day Update… Down, but not necessarily out.
Noon hour hovering at morning lows.
The open’s drop from 2157.50 down to 2146.25 had consolidated throughout the bias environment. Its bounces became shallower, and the consolidation broke lower when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30.
Much lower. A 10-point plunge was already being retraced into the noon hour.
The plunge’s retracement measured 61.8% before returning to attack the plunge’s low. Ranging through the noon hour has repeatedly threatened the lows. The only attempt to break lower was barely 3 minutes old before surging back up to the afternoon’s 2142.50 bias-up signal.
2142.50 was touched at 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its recovery through 1:30 would trigger late bias-up. Also recovering 2143.50 by 1:30 (being tested now) would be helpful confirmation. Otherwise, a late no-bias environment could still test its 2137.00 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 10, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The banking holiday tends to impact volatility, to the degree that the closed bond market might be used otherwise to lay-off risk. Bond futures do still trade, along with stocks.
US Holiday: Columbus Day
Banks Closed, Markets Open
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Charles Evans Speaks
10:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2149.00 | 2142.50 |
| …would target | 2154.00 | 2147.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2143.25 | 2137.00 |
| …would target | 2138.25 | 2131.75 |
| Signal status:LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back on defense.
Still too little optimism to expect a new downleg.
The gap back up to last Friday’s 2160.00 area close remains unfilled. Probing it pre-open does not qualify. More so, its pre-open probe was in reaction to a headline. The gap up testing 2159.00 still represented restrained optimism. So, reacting down — no matter how substantially — can still be recovered.
This morning’s reaction down was 13 points, attacking the 2145.75 bias-down target to within 2 ticks. The 2151.25 bias-down signal triggered late, and was barely confirmed at 10:30. Actually fulfilling the target would be likelier to hold than to break lower, which would target 2140.75.
Rallying this morning back above 2151.25 would be difficult, being a Friday when the morning bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Regardless of how and when it might begin, the bias-down target could be ignored, and the afternoon could simply gravitate higher.