S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally has extended to a fresh high at 2159.00. Maintaining the sentiment post-open is not at all assured. In fact, the week-long pattern has been to reject it, eventually if not immediately. This being the week’s first session, there is a greater potential for breaking with that pattern, but no assurance.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Opening volley.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening surge stopped short of testing the pre-open reaction to payrolls, which had touched 2161.50. It even stopped short of filling the gap back to last Friday’s 2160.00 area close. The restrained optimism may be potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but not immediately. Potential bullishness didn’t prevent a steep morning dip down to 2146.00, or an afternoon dip down to 2138.00. But at least the second dip was retraced into Friday’s close. More restrained optimism, perhaps, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s recovering up to 2151.25 had reacted down into the close at 2145.50. Sunday night’s open gapped up to test 2153.00. Choppy sideways ranging persisted through Europe’s opens, but eventually started trending to fresh highs at 2157.50.
If, then…
Last week’s intraday — mostly early — rally efforts stopped short of prior highs. If that is ultimately bullish from a contrarian perspective, then its ultimate resolution should begin aggressively. Like this morning’s open gapping up above Friday’s highs, as is currently indicated. Testing last week’s highs but then reversing down through the open would suggest their test had held. And the range’s lower-end would be a likely objective of the failure, with equal opportunity to break.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2157.50 would be likely to exceed the 2156.50 bias-up target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2162.25. Exiting the open above 2153.00 at 9:45 would be likely at least to trigger the 2151.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2148.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Tonight’s link to monitor Globex
Well, that was certainly an interesting weekend. That is, if you’re into car wrecks, horror flicks, and April Fool’s jokes gone awry. All ingredients that have been combined to create this year’s U.S. election campaigns. And it’s not over — tonight’s “town hall debate” is another round in the tug o’war. A suddenly surging Peso seems to be influenced by the fireworks, and soon we’ll see whether S&Ps are, too. The overnight Globex session opens at the top of the hour…
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2158.00 | 2151.25 |
| …would target | 2162.75 | 2156.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2149.75 | 2143.50 |
| …would target | 2145.00 | 2138.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s opening surge stopped short of testing the pre-open reaction to payrolls, which had touched 2161.50. It even stopped short of filling the gap back to last Friday’s 2160.00 area close. The restrained optimism didn’t prevent a steep intraday dip. But it makes me suspect whether the dip can extend.
Already, the reaction’s second downleg has been retraced. That was the 10-point drop which appeared suddenly when the morning bias environment began lapsing. The afternoon retraced it. But it wasn’t actually reversed — and it could have been.
All of which is interesting for anticipating intraday action. The context is somewhat bullish from a contrarian perspective, as rally efforts are stopping short of their failures being predictive. That doesn’t mean continuing to chip away at support won’t eventually break lower, only that recoveries remain likely for now.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send login instructions overnight for the weekend’s Saturday Review.