S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 4, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is unremarkable, perhaps the one such day this week as focus shifts to Friday’s payrolls and the usual high-profile reports that precede it.
Jeffrey M. Lacker Speaks
8:05 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2161.75 | 2154.25 |
| …would target | 2167.50 | 2160.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2155.00 | 2147.50 |
| …would target | 2149.00 | 2141.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Is down the path up?
Pre-open slide extends post-open, and then stops.
Extending the pre-open drop past the open eventually fell to 2149.00. That tested the upper-end of the overnight Symmetrical Triangle pattern’s 2147.50-2150.00 objective. Its reaction up tested the 2155.00 bias-down signal as resistance.
Bias-down triggered at 10:15. It wasn’t touched in time to invoke the grace period. And it wasn’t recovered through 10:30 to invalidate the bias-down.
Not triggering bias-down at 10:15 would have been very bullish. Having tested the 2149.75 bias-down target, then offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters would have been put into play.
None of which requires extending down. Bouncing back above the 2155.00 bias-down signal would allow raising the sell signal to 2152.75. It is otherwise at 2150.50, and meanwhile a bounce underway has room to test unchanged at 2160.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Detached from Friday’s late drop though it may be, Monday’s pre-open price action has begun dropping, itself. Ranging overnight around Friday’s 2160.00 cash session close has formed a Symmetrical Triangle. Its false breakout would target 2147.50-2150.00, which could be reacting up already if met early enough during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Not met early enough, or yet reacting up, would no longer be influenced by overnight patterns. A less common false break pattern would be considered reversing up back above 2158.50. But anything lower and later would be vulnerable to extending down this morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding pat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2153.25 isolated the overnight probe under Thursday’s low down to 2135.75, after the overnight probe had neutralized the required retest of oversold RSIs at Thursday’s low. Friday’s session had trended up through the afternoon proxy window’s 2167.75 high, then pulled back to 2160.00 — into the chase session close, and out of it, extending down to 2156.75. The rally nevertheless gained traction for its effort, having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and barely entering the final hour at a higher high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Rallying out of Sunday night’s open has pierced Friday morning’s high up to 2164.00. Dipping back down greeted Europe’s opens at 2157.75. Reacting up hasn’t resumed the open’s recovery. But just fluctuating around Friday’s 2160.00 cash session close hasn’t validated Friday’s late drop, let alone extended it.
If, then…
Friday’s late drop originated too late to be predictive. It was also too shallow within 3 minutes of the cash session close to be predictive. It did extend to levels that would have been relevant if printed earlier in the session. Friday’s late drop wasn’t rejected immediately last night, and perhaps not durably. But it wasn’t yet extended, which separates any new price action from the drop, and keeps the door open to that new price action being to resume Friday’s rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2153.00 would be likely to trigger the 2155.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.