S&P
Post-open Review… Groundwork.
Blip-down recovers from the abyss.
Pre-open action had continued sliding to test 2135.75. Post-open action — i.e. the first bar — spiked down from its 2137.25 open to pierce the overnight lows at 2132.75. No other bar probing under 2135.75 also probed a fresh low.
The probe of fresh lows was reversed back up to 2142.00. And that was extended up to 2148.25. Sellers didn’t gain traction.
Buyers didn’t gain traction, either. The 2146.00 bias-up signal was barely touched in time to invoke the grace period. But the no-bias signal held. Already having tested the 2137.00 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of it isn’t required. But just as 2146.00 is assumed to be the next hour’s upper-end, testing 2137.00 should define the range’s lower-end.
Until the bias environment is within view of lapsing, 10-15 minutes before 11:30. Then breaking either way would be likelier to extend in that direction.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight “Clinton Win” rally up to 2154.00 had retraced 61.8% already down to 2140.75. But now its reaction up to the 2146.00 bias-up signal has resolved down to fresh lows at 2135.50.
That’s really fresh lows, more than 2 points under yesterday afternoon’s lows. But it’s still 2 points above the overnight low, and exiting the open back above 2140.75 would signal another rally effort underway. But not recovering 2140.75 would suggest otherwise, and exiting the open under 2135.75 would all but confirm the morning will probe lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Another shot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Already gapping down to its next objective at 2149.00, Friday’s decline extended even deeper during Monday’s open to 2141.25. Recovering back to the open never gained traction, and the balance of the session trended down to fresh lows at 2136.50. Closing at 2138.00-2139.00 held the deepest level that still allows the decline to be considered only a temporary pullback. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Dropping eventually to 2133.25 was unable to extend before recovering and reversing sharply higher to 2154.00. That’s 4 points above the intraday high. But Europe’s weaker opens were more focused on the ongoing Deutsche Bank story, now joined by Volkswagen’s saga, and a 61.8% pullback has touched 2140.75. Its reaction just bounced up to the 2146.00 bias-up signal.
If, then…
Was Monday’s drop caused by concerns that Trump, presumably being bad for stocks, might that night’s debate? Overnight action reflects that the market also believes his election chances diminished. More relevant to this morning’s price action is whether the overnight rally has compensated for yesterday afternoon’s missed short-squeeze setup. Its measurements would qualify it, which would be bullish, since the short-squeeze’s alternative was to resume the decline. Opening back under yesterday afternoon’s last narrow range at 2138.00-2141.00 would put the decline back on-track. Otherwise, the open should still gap up to and or through yesterday’s 2149.00 high to make rallying today any likelier.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2149.00 would be likely to trigger the 2146.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2143.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2153.50 | 2146.00 |
| …would target | 2159.00 | 2151.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2144.50 | 2137.00 |
| …would target | 2138.00 | 2130.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
We held the market Wrap early Monday. The afternoon bias environment’s lows ultimately held instead of breaking lower. Which is an interesting wrench in he works since the alternative to a short-squeeze was to extend the decline. The short-squeeze’s window hasn’t so much lapsed, as it must now develop overnight to prevent extending the decline Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.