S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2150.50 | 2143.50 |
| …would target | 2156.00 | 2149.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2139.75 | 2132.75 |
| …would target | 2134.00 | 2127.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s session was greeted by three main influences. They are the 2134.00 dividing line that indicates whether sellers are retaking control, the 2095.00 retest of Sunday night’s low that was attempted Wednesday night, and the not-bullish WedEX that Thursday’s open failed to further define.
Each is described in detail during the post-market Wrap. Also discussed are two new elements. The first is overbought RSIs left outstanding at Thursday’s 2144.50 high. Retesting it could extend to “higher prior lows” from Monday afternoon at 2049.00, which itself could be probed up to 2050.50. Second is that Thursday’s rally gained no traction. Gapping up could compensate for that, which the unfinished business above at Thursday’s overbought RSIs could incite.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… No room for noise.
No-bias trending retraced to a critical level.
This afternoon’s 2132.25 bias-down signal finally held as support after invoking the grace period. Late no-bias allowed room for noise up to the 2139.75 bias-up signal, which a buy signal above 2134.75 essentially put into play.
The 2139.75 bias-up signal was tested, and then exceeded, with room for noise above it to 2143.50. Its test was overlapped up to 2144.50. Overbought RSIs there require a retest. A dip recovered to within 1 tick of 2144.50. Any higher would have put into play 2149.00, which is “higher prior lows” from Monday afternoon’s rally.
Instead, another dip is now testing the afternoon’s 2139.75 bias-up signal. The probe above it required being retraced, since its timing had made it “no-bias trending.” Often, the bias timing window’s 1:20 pm print is also retraced. And that was the 2132.25 bias-down signal.
The extra retracement under 2139.75 isn’t required. But it’s being attempted now. And despite overbought RSIs at the 2144.50 high requiring a retest, the rally hasn’t gained traction, so at least a corrective dip is possible.
Also relevant will be whether the close is back under 2134.00. Closing above it today won’t (yet) invalidate the two prior sessions having closed under it. But closing under it after having probed above it intraday would help to confirm that sellers remain in control.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s surge retested 1.1265 resistance. Again. And it held. Again. Chipping away at its resistance doesn’t yet assure breaking higher. But not yet reversing down Friday morning would make a break higher much likelier.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding sharply Thursday morning thoroughly tested support down to 1312.00, and reversed up sharply to attack 1324.50 resistance. It’s the new bounce limit, and reversing its test back down under 1313.00 would next target the 1296.00-1297.00 objective still outstanding.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking up at Thursday’s open to 19.25 was reversed down to 18.88, but not to extend down. In fact, recovering into positive territory essentially ranged around unchanged and 19.00. Retesting prior lows should get underway before the weekend or else a bigger corrective bounce would become very likely.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retesting Tuesday’s 164-22 low Thursday down to 164-17 didn’t extend down, but still needed to be recovered into positive territory and above 165-30 to signal that a bottom had formed.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Did Thursday form a bullish Pivot Reversal? Gapping up slightly was reversed down from 44.21 to almost fill the outstanding gap at 43.22. It was attacked to within a nickel while piercing its bar by 2 cents. Regardless, reversing back above the morning’s high attacked 44.35. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday. Otherwise, almost any delay would be likely at least to probe fresh lows down to 43.25 42.25.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reversal down from its 2.98 pre-open fresh high to 2.85 extended only slightly lower to 2.83 before the EIA report triggered a recovery up to 2.95. The 3.04 target remains in-play, although a second consecutive higher close Friday would help to confirm.
Mid-day Update… This way, and that way.
Morning rally not yet backing-off.
Absorbing the pre-open dip and its shallower post-open dip had marginalized sellers for the morning. Buyers exploited the conditions by triggering the 2124.25 bias-up signal. Its 2131.00 bias-up target was met, as was the 2135.50 next higher objective. The morning’s bias environment began lapsing at 2138.00.
Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the morning’s high required a retest. That was just fulfilled, as the noon hour’s retracement to 2130.25 recovered the 2132.25 bias-down signal in time to trigger late no-bias. Room up to the 2139.75 bias-up signal was just fulfilled, too, taking RSIs overbought again.
Regardless of how strong the trending in one direction, we’re not considering it to be durable. Price action has been suggesting that this expiration can counter any trending. That would allow fulfilling the 2095.00 objective which yesterday afternoon’s market has already put on its to-do list.