S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s unusual to accompany expiration with econ reports, let alone high-profile and influential. But this quadruple expiration has two, and they’re staggered. The afternoon’s rig count influences Crude Oil, which influences the market at least momentarily — last week’s did not, but Crude prices did rise relatively sharply .
Quadruple Expiration
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2147.00 | 2139.75 |
| …would target | 2153.00 | 2146.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2139.25 | 2132.25 |
| …would target | 2133.00 | 2125.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tried, tried, again.
Pre-open and post-open dips absorbed.
The pre-open rally had tested the 2124.25 bias-up signal, and its reaction had tested the 2114.50 bias-down signal. That was pretty close to the open, but it didn’t equate to being a post-open test of the bias-down signal.
The open’s surge up to 2122.25 reacted down to 2114.75. Another bounce reacted down to 2114.50. Those were post-open, and pretty close to the bias-down signal. But they didn’t qualify as tests, either. And the second test’s reaction up started suggesting that sellers were marginalized.
Holding a test of the bias-down signal would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2124.25 bias-up signal. No need for that — bias-up triggered.
The 2128.00 high that printed by 10:15 has yet to be exceeded. Until it is, the bias-up can still be invalidated by exiting the bias environment back under the 2124.25 bias-up signal. Back under 2123.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Exiting the bias environment under its 2114.50 bias-down signal would still put into play its 2109.00 bias-down target.
Otherwise, the 2131.00 bias-up target is in-play. While sellers are marginalized for the morning, fulfilling the bias-up target would be an opportunity for today’s session to peak. Beware of sudden and substantial reversals during this expiration cycle.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The BOE reaction down from 2123.25 extended ultimately to 2117.25. Ultimately, for awhile. Its recovery to fresh highs tested the 2124.25 bias-up signal by 1 tick. And now ITS reaction down is probing lower lows down through the 2114.25 bias-down signal by more than 1 point. Gapping down and immediately extending to test 2110.50 would be a critical decision-point, as discussed during the Tour.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Warning shots.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late-afternoon 2112.00 low had pierced Tuesday’s low by a single tick. That was bearish enough to all but ensure lower lows on the horizon, whether immediately or delayed. Delayed. The last half-hour bounced up to 2119.50, almost all of it retraced by spiking down into the futures close. The stopped WedEX from triggering an optimal signal, other than it not rejecting the cumulative chipping away at support. It was a second consecutive close under 2134.00. But a hold-short was narrowly avoided, and overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the morning’s 2134.50 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initial firming was jolted abruptly by a 9-point plunge that was triggered by concerns over next week’s BOJ meeting. The fresh low tested “lower prior highs” from Sunday night’s consolidation down to 2108.00. Completely retracing the drop before Europe’s opens, the recovery extended well into positive territory to greet this morning’s BOE policy statement at 2123.25. The immediate reaction has dipped to 2118.00.
If, then…
I have been noting that this month’s WedEX seems capable of both trending and counter-trending, with substantial moves in either direction. Only several hours after triggering WedEX, we’ve already seen an example of each… Now the overnight rally might seem to make gapping down Thursday more difficult. Perhaps a little, but that’s a function of the recovery’s momentum, which has become quite stretched. The open is still the open, and this morning’s econ calendar is busy (5 reports simultaneously at 8:30!)… Testing Monday’s 2110.50 post-open low overnight has created an attraction that would soon be in-play if the open doesn’t immediately recover a dip back into negative territory. Actually gapping down under 2110.50 still would serve by proxy to trigger a Bearish WedEX. Otherwise, gapping up above 2134.00 is the minimum to even suggest a Bullish WedEX. It is meanwhile resistance.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2121.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2124.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2121.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2114.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.