S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2131.50 | 2124.25 |
| …would target | 2138.25 | 2131.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2121.50 | 2114.25 |
| …would target | 2116.25 | 2109.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s last half-hour bounced from 2112.00. Already having entrenched the downtrend by at least trending down throughout the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, the late bounce wasn’t going to produce anything bullish. It did manage to test what would have been a reliable buy signal above 2119.00, holding it throughout the position-squaring window. The futures close dipped back down to 2112.25.
Meanwhile, WedEX stopped short of triggering an optimal signal. The afternoon’s 2112.25 low only pierced yesterday’s prior low, and only by 1 tick. That’s hardly a test, so its reaction up is hardly a rejection. The pattern is more about chipping away at support than about holding it. And that’s less than optimal, as were the final hour’s entry and 3:10-3:20 window.
Gapping down Thursday — especially under Monday’s 2110.50 post-open low — would serve by proxy to trigger a delayed Active Bearish WedEX. Otherwise, gapping up above 2134.00 is the minimum to even suggest a delayed Bullish WedEX.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Putting the “under” in underway.
NOTE: Please disregard the prior blog post (“Mid-day update”) which was sent in error.
A supporting inflection point was established at 2124.25 coming out of this morning’s bias environment. Multiple tests into the afternoon’s bias environment finally broke lower. No-bias had triggered already, so the afternoon’s 2121.25 bias-down signal was required to define the range’s lower-end.
That didn’t prevent breaking under it to test this morning’s 2115.50 bias-down signal as support. But its timing was “no-bias trending” that required recovering back up to 2121.25. Testing and retesting it has resolved down to fresh lows — under yesterday’s lows to 2112.00.
The 3:10-3:20 proxy window trended down throughout, but only to touch the bias environment’s low. So, it’s not optimal confirmation to the bias environment having lapsed under the noon hour’s low, which the final hour’s entry did not confirm. Nevertheless, this current leg is targeting 2095.00, whether met today or tomorrow (likely today).
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s probe under 1.1225 reacted back up Wednesday to retest 1.1265 resistance, which had held already Sunday and Monday. A new downleg has yet to be confirmed.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probes lower after Tuesday’s close and overnight didn’t extend down, but buyers weren’t attracted Wednesday as the 1329.00-1332.00 bounce limit continued to hold.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up tested the recent range’s 18.15 upper-end and spent the entire session in positive territory. But the range’s upper-end held as resistance, which is “ineffectual optimism” that should resolve down almost immediately if a bigger bounce will be avoided.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday and extending up to 166-12 held a test of the 165-30 bounce limit. Now holding a retest of Tuesday’s 164-22 low — especially if recovered to close positive territory — would form a bottom.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows Wednesday found support at the recovery’s original 44.20 bounce limit. Reacting up into positive territory in reaction to the morning’s EIA report was rejected by a return to lower lows testing 43.45, confirming a retest of the 43.00-43.25 prior lows remains in-play.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing above prior highs overnight to 2.98 before reversing down intraday into negative territory at 2.85. Now closing back above 2.94 would confirm the 3.04 objective remains in-play..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, even without the pre-open Bank of England action. Two of the five 8:30 reports have reliable track records for influencing price action. And reactions they trigger tend to be duplicated by other reports.
BOE policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET