S&P
Post-open Review… Rangebound and down.
Opening surge slingshots back down.
Rallying this morning had to begin immediately to be credible. And even then, immediately rallying would be vulnerable to failure. Reversing down did not require any particular timing.
Firming to open at the 2182.00 bias-up signal added 3 ticks quickly and then lost them quicker. The first half-hour only overlapped 2180.50, continually. But it finally broke lower, triggering no-bias.
An offsetting test of the 2174.25 bias-down signal has been fulfilled already. Probing it down to 2173.00 was recovered through 10:30 to avoid invalidating the no-bias. So, this is likely to morning’s low.
The open’s continual overlap of 2180.50 makes it a candidate for attracting price back up to it. Breaking under 2174.00 would make fresh lows likelier — “no-bias trending” if broken too early, and less able to extend down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is being greeted by the same choppy ranging as has defined overnight action. A downleg could develop with no particular timing. An upleg should develop almost immediately if it is credible — and even then, immediately rallying would still be vulnerable to failure.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Back to business.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up from 2166.00 quickly extended to probe Monday’s 2182.00 prior high by almost 2 points. Reversing back down 12 points through the noon hour still remained more than 5 points into positive territory. The balance of the session was influenced by the lack of influence, being a Friday afternoon, and price drifted back up to 2179.00 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open resumed Friday afternoon’s upward drift back up to 2182.00. That held through the night, before reacting down to 2175.00 during the Labor Day holiday morning. Monday night;s action has drifted back up to test 2182.25.
If, then…
Last week crossed its hump without breaking under prior lows, despite a couple of attempts. Now the holiday is being exited without yet converting the tests of support into a break above resistance. An early rally attempt would be more credible for extending higher than would a delayed attempt, but an early rally attempt would still be vulnerable to failure. Retracing Friday’s gap up could occur on any timetable.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2183.50 would be likely to trigger the 2182.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 6, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: PMI is Tuesday’s only report with any track record for influencing price action. ISM does not, but an extreme reading could have an impact if PMI had done so already.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
Tonight’s Globex link to chaRTroom
Despite the three-day holiday weekend, Globex opens normally this evening at 6:00 p m ET, and trades through Monday morning at 1:00 pm ET.
You can monitor action in the chaRTroom here.