S&P
Pre-close View… Turning inside, out?
Window opening to get unstuck from Friday’s range.
The afternoon’s 2183.50 bias-up signal was touched during the noon hour, but not triggered. A sell signal at 2180.50 was touched twice during the bias environment, but also not triggered. The narrow range is persisting into the final hour.
Extending beyond either end of the range through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would be credible for extending. Probing higher would still be vulnerable to slinghotting back down into the range, if not also through it to fresh lows.
Otherwise, today’s price action should remain within Friday range. Regardless, having failed to gain traction in either direction today, trending tomorrow morning would require gapping open beyond either end of today’s range.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Retracing all of Friday’s initial spike up before the weekend, back down to 1.1155, was not itself a new sell signal, and it didn’t prevent Tuesday from surging back up to the spike’s 1.1260 peak. But closing back under 1.1175 is needed to reinstate the downtrend.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Tuesday to 1336.50 extended sharply higher intraday to 1354.00-1357.00, extending the decline’s bigger detour which had been signaled Thursday by closing above 1312.70-1315.30. But Tuesday’s extension wasn’t necessary, since Friday had closed back under 1329.00. Closing back under 1343.00 would reinstate the 1296.00-1297.00 objective. Closing first above 1362.00 would suggest an even bigger rally underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Stopping short Friday of filling its gap back up to 19.48 didn’t prevent extending higher during the holiday to gap up to 19.65 and extend through the prior outstanding gap at 19.85, testing 20.20. Friday’s breakout above 19.00 was confirmed already during the holiday, so Tuesday’s extension fulfilled it. Closing back under 19.75 would signal that the bounce had ended.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation had filled the gap back down to 168-28, although that wasn’t required. Its reaction up extended Tuesday to test the 170-02 buy signal as resistance. Anything in between continues to be the unpredictable sloppy and choppy ranging.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing 46.50 during the Labor Day holiday was retraced entirely back into negative territory Tuesady under 44.00. But the 44.20 bounce limit was still being tested into the close, so the decline has no excuse to be delayed.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday didn’t confirm Thursday’s break under 2.82, but that didn’t prevent Tuesday from gapping down to test 2.71. This sequence is the first three of a four-session setup. The fourth session would also fail to confirm Tuesday’s break. This is only useful if Wednesday were to gap down or probe lower, which would be likely to recover.
Mid-day Update… Rangebound, and up.
Support test produces resistance test.
I noted during the pre-market Tour that direction wasn’t the only question to answer this morning. Trending, at all, was still not assured. In fact, this morning’s drop to the bias-down signal has recovered to retest its opening peak, and Friday’s highs. Trending beyond Friday’s range has yet to develop — let alone, to be indicated.
This morning’s 2182.00 bias-up signal held its test and tested its 2174.25 bias-down signal. Now this afternoon’s 2183.50 bias-up signal has been tested, and back under 2180.50 would start to signal another downdraft underway.
The range need no t break either way today. But trending after the bias environment start lapsing would be more credible for extending.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 7, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is interesting for having no influential early reports, but several following items have reliable track records for influencing price action. JOLTS is as relevant as the prior week’s Employment Situation report, so even comporting with it could trigger a similar bullish reaction. Meanwhile, the Fed speaker and later Beige Book release will fuel rate-hike speculation.
John Williams Speaks
TUE 8:30 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2185.00 | 2183.50 |
| …would target | 2190.50 | 2189.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2178.50 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2172.75 | 2171.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.