S&P
Post-open Review… Late to party.
Bias-down invalidated.
The overnight extension higher was only retraced before the open. It may as well have been rejected by reversing into negative territory. 
Not gapping up from yesterday’s setup meant not rallying. Not credibly, not sharply, not durably.
The flat open at 2168.25 reacted up 4 points immediately, triggering a buy signal that peaked within its first 3 minutes at 2172.25. Reversing down through a sell signal under 2169.00 quickly fulfilled its 2166.00 target. The 2164.50 bias-down signal was attacked to within 1 tick, an errant tick’s knee-jerk reaction to news.
No-bias triggered. That’s all the morning was required to do — fluctuate within its range for noise.
When it had become too late to invoke a grace period, another sell signal was triggered under 2166.00. The 2164.50 bias-down signal was broken through 10:30 to invalidate the no-bias. That break was pretty productive, plunging into a sudden bottom at the 2156.50 “unfinished business below.”
Plunging AFTER 10:30 would have been “no-bias trending” which would require recovering. So, this drop can extend, and its next lower objective would be 2141.50. But that’s unlikely. The opportunity to extend was yesterday, and that opportunity was flubbed. Still, oversold RSIs are undermining the current 3-point bounce from testing 2156.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Ruh-roh. Extending yesterday afternoon’s recovery ran into resistance at 2177.00. Its reaction has backed down to almost unchanged 2169.50. That’s not a gap up, which resuming yesterday’s recovery would require. Trying to rally could be doomed to failure. Declining through the morning would now be credible.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… A broken string.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
REMINDER: I am away from the screens today after 2:00 pm ET, and tomorrow after noon.
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s noon hour test of 2160.00 support produced an obligatory bounce. Like late-Friday’s bounce from testing 2160.00, strong-handed sellers never regained control intraday. Once again, the bounce’s 2170.75-2171.50 target area was fulfilled. Buyers did not gain traction for the effort, but sellers missed the opportunity for breaking support on Wednesday before a three-day holiday. “Unfinished business below” was left outstanding at 2156.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
The consequence of Wednesday’s missed opportunity seems already to be developing. Rallying ahead of Europe’s opens then surged to test 2177.00. Its reaction down touched 2171.50 and has tried bouncing again.
If, then…
Gapping down under Wednesday afternoon’s last relative low of 2163.50 would have started to reject the recovery attempt. Today’s econ calendar is one of the busiest ever, with plenty of influential catalysts. That’s not currently indicated, although formidable at resistance 2177.00 is intact. But having failed to gain traction yesterday afternoon, gapping up above yesterday’s highs is the only credible start to extending higher this morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2177.00 would be likely to trigger the 2173.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2170.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2174.00 | 2173.00 |
| …would target | 2179.50 | 2178.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2165.50 | 2164.50 |
| …would target | 2159.75 | 2158.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s noon hour test of 2160.00 support produced an obligatory bounce. Like late-Friday’s bounce from testing 2160.00, strong-handed sellers never regained control. Both bounces targeted the same 2170.75-2171.50 area, which both fulfilled.
But Wednesday’s bounce accomplished nothing toward reversing the trend up. It didn’t gain traction or reverse the trend up, and holding a test of resistance only neutralized the attraction above. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s 2156.50 outstanding bias-down target became “unfinished business below.”
Wednesday’s bounce did potentially marginalize sellers through the holiday. Not already breaking lower this far before a three-day weekend suggests that a break lower is at least delayed. To be sure, recovering from a probe under Friday’s low would have been optimal. And gapping down Thursday could serve by proxy to resume the decline. Otherwise, gravitating back up into the weekend is possible before resuming the decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.