S&P
Post-market Wrap (Summary)
It’s not surprising to boot up and log in this evening to see the market did nothing significant after I left early. Firstly, the market is known for accommodating everyone’s schedule. Secondly, I willed it not to produce any surprises. And thirdly, the morning recovery’s momentum was running into anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Like the prior two sessions’ recoveries, Thursday’s also stopped short of closing above a relevant resistance. Afternoon buyers gained no traction for their efforts. Extending higher Friday morning would require gapping up. Payrolls offers a catalyst, but that’s no assurance.
Meanwhile, I’ve noticed the market hasn’t rallied on traditionally bullish news of weaker economic reports. Those data would suggest the Fed won’t raise rates, which the market seems to want — if only to get it over with. Weaker payrolls could cause quite the decline into the weekend — especially now that last Friday’s low was chipped away Thursday. Otherwise, genuinely strong employment growth that seems to force the Fed’s hand could be very bullish.
There was no post-market Wrap recording here due to travel.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down held at Tuesday’s opening low, before bouncing sharply into positive territory. A second consecutive higher close Friday would signal momentum reversing up. Otherwise, lower lows remain likely.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down to test a fresh low Thursday at 1305.50 was recovered well into positive territory, testing bounce limits at 1312.30 and 1315.70. Closing any higher would signal a much bigger detour on the way down to 1296.00-1297.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Silver’s recent relative outperformace against Gold helped it to avoid a fresh low Thursday, but its bounce up to 19.00 remained under the 19.15 prior week’s high that must hold to maintain near-term likelihood to retest overnight lows.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down sharply Thursday and extending to 169-06 was reversed back above Wednesday’s high to 170-27, as the sloppy, choppy range persisted ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Closing above 170-02 could greet the news from a position of strength, but there otherwise remains no attractive setup.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down sharply Thursday tested the next lower attraction at 43.45. The second consecutive lower close under a multi-session range now requires there eventually be at least a third lower close. Bounces should meanwhile hold any test of 43.90-44.20.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position not of weakness didn’t prevent reacting down to retest the 2.82 sell signal, and probing it deeper than Tuesday’s test down to 2.78. A second consecutive lower close would confirm momentum reversing down. Otherwise, closing back above 2.88 would again be credible for extending higher.
Mid-day Update… Over, and also out.
REMINDER: I’M AWAY THIS AFTERNOON. SCROLL DOWN FOR DETAILS.
Breaking under this morning’s 2164.50 bias-down signal AFTER the 10:30 was too late to trigger. And it was too early to be “no-bias trending” But it did invalidate the no-bias. And for good reason, as a plunge probed fresh lows — including last Friday’s low — down to 2154.75, neutralizing yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2156.50.
A credible extended decline needed to be underway through yesterday’s close, or else already probing lower at this morning’s open. Neither being the case did not preclude attempting it, only succeeding at it.
The attempt has been recovered up to 2168.00. This afternoon’s 2164.50 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2170.75 target is in-play. It could be probed as noise up to 2174.25, which is the most I’m expecting. Between the momentum following this morning’s slingshot, and the anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report — and three days of illiquidity fast approaching — strong-handed sponsorship isn’t likely to appear.
Meanwhile, I’ll be away from screens this afternoon from 2:00 pm ET. There will be no further blog update after Daily Spot, and no post-market Wrap or recording. I’ll update the blog again later tonight… Tomorrow morning will operate as normal, and then I’ll be gone through the afternoon.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is among the most reliable for influencing price action. Its reaction is likely to be duplicated by subsqequent reports, of which there is an unusual amount to be accompanying Payrolls. The noon hour’s Fed speaker should keep volatility active into the afternoon, if not also the weekend.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2166.00 | 2164.50 |
| …would target | 2172.25 | 2170.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2157.25 | 2155.75 |
| …would target | 2150.50 | 2149.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.