S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2183.00 | 2182.00 |
| …would target | 2188.75 | 2187.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.50 | 2171.50 |
| …would target | 2167.00 | 2166.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Site difficulties persist.
The pre-open surge extended through the 2177.00 bias-up target to greet the open at 2179.00. A blip-up touched the 2181.25-2182.00 renewed bias-up target and reacted down. Fresh highs up to 2183.75 continually overlapped 2181.25-2182.00.
Maintaining a gap up above prior highs through the open tends to be impossible to reverse down. And this has gone on to be a bias-up environment — renewed, no less.But 1-minute RSI diverged negatively into the high. And a reaction down is retesting the 2179.00 open. If the bias environment drifts flat-to-lower, then late-afternoon would be vulnerable to sliding sharply into the weekend. But sellers get only one bite at this apple to reverse the trend down. Back above 2181.25-2182.00 could trigger a much larger short-squeeze.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A pessimistic dip down to 2164.25 greeted this morning’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction spiked up to the 2174.25 area, and has since eked higher to touch 2176.00. The bias-up target is another point higher.
That’s a traditional reaction to report’s “disappointment,” which seems to take off the pressure from the Fed raising rates. But a traditional knee-jerk reaction was always expected. It’s the follow-through that matters. And exceeding the 2177.00 bias-up target at 10:15 — i.e. renewing the bias-up signal next targeting 2181.25 — would signal that buyers are following-through.
Otherwise, not renewing the bias-up would likely range flat-to-lower this morning. And that’s only if bias-up is triggered. This being Friday, a few disappointed buyers can become hordes of aggressive sellers within minutes. Not triggering bias-up at 10:15 could be very bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Damned only if they don’t.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s plunge from 2172.00 down to 2154.00 was recovered up to 2168.50 during the noon hour, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. The recovery’s momentum was spent, pre-payrolls anxiousness was looming, and holiday illiquidity wasn’t far behind. Last Friday’s low was likely to be probed and not just attacked such as at Wednesday’s low. And it wasn’t likely to be broken by an attempt after Wednesday’s close. So, the recovery quickly followed after neutralizing Wednesday’s “unfinished business below” at 2156.50.The afternoon’s 2170.75 bias-up target was left outstanding..
Overnight action’s new info…
After one night’s absence, narrow ranging has returned. That’s now four out of five overnight ranges limited to 4-5 points. Where the prior instances were due to nothing stimulating enthusiasm, now price is constrained by fear of coming news.
If, then…
I’ve noticed the market hasn’t rallied this week on traditionally bullish news of weaker economic reports. Those data would suggest the Fed won’t raise rates, which the market now seems to want — if only to get it over with. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction to the prospect of a hike can’t be avoided, nor should it be. But patterns suggest the negative reaction would likely be only temporary. Weaker payrolls would suggest the opposite, triggering selling into the weekend — especially now that last Friday’s low was chipped away Thursday. Otherwise, genuinely strong employment growth that seems to force the Fed’s hand could be very bullish after prices first dip… REMINDERS: I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS AFTER THE NOON HOUR. AND THIS BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW. WE WILL HAVE AN EARLY AND EXPANDED MARKET WRAP...
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2172.00 | 2170.75 |
| …would target | 2178.25 | 2177.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2162.25 | 2161.00 |
| …would target | 2157.00 | 2155.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.