S&P
Pre-close View… Jumping on eggshells.
Probing fresh lows but not yet extending.
The 2107.75 bias-down signal had held as support until the bias environment came within view of lapsing. Breaking lower to 2168.50 had an opportunity to extend down. But it has reacted back up to 2171.50 resistance.
Resuming the slide should become a collapse, targeting a retest of Friday’s 2157.50 low and lower to 2141.50. Not exploiting the opportunity isn’t necessarily bullish, but recovering 2173.00 could launch another recovery leg targeting 2188.00.
Whether breaking lower or recovering, Friday afternoon’s low remains influential. The interim reaction up has been only a temporary correction. The correction can still extend, but breaking any lower here would target fresh lows.
This afternoon’s bias environment was exited under the noon hour’s low, but the final hour wasn’t entered lower. Trending down to fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window (now opening) would signal that sellers were gaining traction.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday under the 1.1175 sell signal that had held a test Monday is also confirmation to the ongoing break that was triggered under 1.1295 and targeting 1.0870-1.0980.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down and trending down intraday fulfilled the outstanding requirement for at least a third lower close, but it didn’t create a bottom that would otherwise suggest the 1296.00-1297.00 target doesn’t remain in-play.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday, and spending the entire session in positive territory without extending higher is “ineffectual pessimism,” which suggest the decline’s momentum remains intact. Anyway, at least an eventual third lower close remains outstanding, including a more thorough touch of the decline’s 18.35 target so long as 18.85 isn’t recovered.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 171-22 Monday was of course followed immediately by gapping down Tuesday back under 171-22. Not substantially, and not with any predictive value. But the range continues to behave erratically.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down a little Tuesday eventually extended down to touch 46.60 support, but didn’t yet break under to trigger a new downleg.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rolling coverage forward to Oct, trading at a 3-cent premium to Sep… Despite having held the 2.88 pullback limit Monday, a deeper pullback Tuesday tested the 2.82 sell signal whose break would suggest a substantial detour from producing the required higher close that remains outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Creeping down.
Sitting at support.
Yesterday afternoon’s pullback objective was 2171.50. The effort stopped short before the close, and took awhile restarting this morning. But 2171.50 was touched at this morning’s low.
And has since held.
The noon hour bounced to 2176.00 and the bias environment is within 1 tick of 2171.50. Being no-bias, the 2107.75 bias-down signal should define the low if tested… until the bias environment begins lapsing.
Breaking lower as the bias environment lapsing comes into view would essentially target a retest of Friday’s 2157.50 low. Breaking lower prematurely should at least tag-up with the bias-down signal before extending. That tag-up could recover, instead.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 31, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open Fed speaker is too early to be very influential to price action. But the ADP report is high-profile, coming just ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Any reaction to the post-open PMI when released privately to institutional subscribers will likely be duplicated upon public release. Reaction to the late-afternoon Fed speaker will be interpreting based on Tuesday reaction to a similar time slot.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks
8:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
3:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2180.00 | 2178.50 |
| …would target | 2185.00 | 2183.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.25 | 2170.75 |
| …would target | 2167.50 | 2166.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.