S&P
Post-open Review… Late start.
Delayed resumption of yesterday’s late reaction down.
The third consecutive narrow overnight range once again broke sharply at the open. But this time, not until the open. And the opening break was reversed. Actually, today’s opening break up to 2181.50 was retraced back to the 2178.00 open, which held through the half-hour.
Finally breaking lower still had not touched the 2174.25 bias-down signal until the very end of the 3-minute window either way around 10:15. Having invoked the grace period, 2174.25 was still being touched at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
So, the bias-down target is not in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. The 2179.75-2171.50 objective of yesterday’s late-reaction down from 2182.00 has been pierced.
Since the break is not “no-bias trending” that would require a recovery, this morning’s dip can become something more substantial. With tomorrow being peak liquidity ahead of a three-day holiday weekend, any near-term trending must be underway before then — which makes a break under Friday’s lows possible today or tomorrow.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The narrow overnight range persisted to greet the open, the third consecutive such range, albeit biased slightly downward. There is no requirement to resume Monday’s rally that had begun at late Friday afternoon’s test of support. But its eventual reversal isn’t required to begin this morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Calm before another storm?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
After rallying throughout the morning from 2169.00 at Monday’s open, the afternoon was contained by its 2182.00 bias-up signal. Not actually probing it — not stretching the rubber band tightly — avoided a steep reaction back down. But there was a modest reaction which eventually extended down to 2178.25. No traction was gained
Overnight action’s new info…
The downward slope of last night’s shallow 4-point range differs from the prior two narrow overnight sessions that had ranged sideways. Not that much downside was covered after firming to attack 2181.00. Extending yesterday’s late-afternoon slide has tested 2177.00 as support.
If, then…
Resuming Monday morning’s rally requires gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 2182.00 high. That’s not currently indicated, nor is it being attempted, but it’s not too far away. And the two prior narrow overnight ranges began trending immediately at the open. Extending Monday’s late afternoon reaction down would not be required to probe under Monday’s intraday range. But their retest would be likely to break lower.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2177.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2174.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2171.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2184.50 | 2182.75 |
| …would target | 2189.50 | 2188.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2175.75 | 2174.25 |
| …would target | 2169.75 | 2168.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Today’s market Wrap was held one hour early at 3:03 PM ET…
Monday afternoon’s 2182.00 bias-up signal was finally touched, but too late for its resistance to crumble. Not actually probing it — not stretching the rubber band tightly — avoided reversing the trend back down. Its reaction did test the noon hour’s 2179.25 low and bounce back into the afternoon range. The last half-hour was greeted by a slightly deeper test that fluctuated widely around the noon hour low.
No traction had been gained by the afternoon timing windows. So, resuming the morning’s rally requires gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 2182.00 high. Extending down overnight need not resume last week’s decline, but retesting last week’s lows would likely break lower. Monday’s bounce was not the product of accumulation. It was only follow-through from Friday’s oversold test of support from filling the three-week old gap back down to 2160.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.