S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2189.00 | 2185.50 |
| …would target | 2195.50 | 2192.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2179.50 | 2176.00 |
| …would target | 2174.25 | 2170.75 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s final hour entry flubbed the chance to confirm a sell signal under 2182.25. Its reaction up pierced a fresh high, coming once again to within 2-3 ticks of 2185.50. Rather than exploit the breakout attempt, price reversed back down into the afternoon’s range, probing a fresh low at 2180.25 after the cash session close.
That late fresh high was an opportunity to launch a new upleg, and was also flubbed. There seems to be very little short interest available to be squeezed. Pessimistic shorts would be bullish from a contrarian perspective. This is not. But it’s also not a sell signal — not yet..
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Suspended animation
No unfinished business above, but no reaction.
This morning’s rally extended into noon at 2184.25. Narrow sideways ranging persisted through the noon hour, and also through the afternoon bias environment. Noise around the range came within 2-3 ticks of the 2185.50 unfinished business above, so it is now neutralized.
The bias environment exit was within the noon hour’s range. So was the final hour’s entry, but not before dipping to 2181.25. A fresh low would confirm momentum is reversing down, but the optimal timing has passed already. Back above 2184.25 would become more vulnerable to staging another upleg ahead of the close.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap up had quickly paused and consolidated at 1.1180 support. Closing any lower would signal the bounce had ended, and Thursday’s gap down under it extended lower intraday. Closing also under 1.1105 would confirm a new downleg underway.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s weakness only touched Tuesday’s low, but rejected the open’s gap up, which is in-line with Wednesday’s gap up being only temporary. A retest of Tuesday’s low would enable a durable recovery to form.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s probe under Wednesday’s low testing 20.05 support need only close lower on Friday to confirm at least an attack on the week’s lows — not necessarily back down to the actual 19.60 low — before beginning a durable recovery.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Wednesday simultaneously above both 172-26 and 173-04 buy signals didn’t prevent Thursday’s slight gap down from extending sharply lower intraday. The recent recovery was retraced precisely 61.8% to 171-25, which at least avoids reversing momentum down. Almost any initial strength Friday would be likely to extend higher intraday, and vulnerable to extending to fresh highs for the week.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially extending down Thursday morning to a fresh pullback low was reversed well before noon back up to probe the 43.35 bounce limit by 50 cents. Its test had launched the first reaction down, so closing above it at least once is required to suggest its reaction down has ended.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness had made an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up likely to fail. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to 2.53 was recovered into positive territory up to 2.60, but it was retraced back down to 2.53. RSIs diverged positively, so bottoming action would be credible.
Mid-day Update… Climbing gingerly.
Fresh highs consolidating narrowly.
This morning’s late bias-up signal triggered at 2176.75 and extended higher relentlessly until within 2 ticks of its 2182.25 bias-up target. Consolidating until the bias environment began lapsing was resolved up to another fresh high at 2184.25.
That’s still under the 2185.50 “unfinished business above.” Two hours of a narrow 2-point range since then hasn’t extended the rally. But neither has it been rejected.
I probably won’t have any sell signal ready to exploit potential downside. At this time, it looks like that would be only temporary, before recovering to a fresh high.