S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 12, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ calendar is busy for any day, let alone for this week of almost no influential or high-profile reports. Any discernible reaction to the two pre-open reports — if there is one — would likely repeat in reaction to the post-open reports.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2189.25 | 2185.50 |
| …would target | 2195.50 | 2192.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2182.00 | 2178.50 |
| …would target | 2176.25 | 2172.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No (more) excuses.
Post-open dip is fully reversed.
Yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction. So, the only credible morning rally above yesterday’s highs must begin by the open maintaining a gap up above yesterday’s highs.
Which today’s open did. The 2179.00 overnight high was maintained through the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility. Maintained, not extended.
That’s an anchor, not momentum. It doesn’t prevent a detour from extending the gap. It certainly didn’t prevent this morning’s detour back down to 2175.00. The 2176.75 bias-up signal was touched in time to invoke the grace period, and recovered in time to trigger late bias-up.
There’s no bullish reason to delay probing new highs. Not when combining that last bit of “ineffectual pessimism” with anchoring the open’s gap up — all within a couple of points of intraday highs. In fact, now 2182.00 is being tested.
The 2182.25 bias-up target is essentially met. Unfinished business above at 2185.50 remains outstanding. A very magnetic range below lies in wait.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Recovering 7 points back up to the 2179.00 overnight high has since hovered patiently while awaiting the open. A valid breakout in this pattern should almost literally explode higher post-open, making early-entry a little more compelling. Maintaining a recovery above yesterday’s highs through this morning’s open would make this morning likely to probe fresh highs, such as unfinished business above at 2185.50. But NOT yet exploiting the opportunity to trend up would instead become likelier to repeat yesterday morning’s drop — perhaps less aggressively and more backing-and-filling, but a drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Can’t keep it down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday gapped up several points to 2179.00, stopping pessimistically short of the overnight high, as did two pre-open bounces. Post-open action immediately dropped, more pessimism, but holding up above its bias-down trigger. Price trended down anyway until the afternoon bias environment’s 2168.00 exit. But even that didn’t gain traction, as probing under “unfinished business below” at 2171.00 was recovered to hold as support through the close
Overnight action’s new info…
A quick pullback at the Globex open touched 2170.00, and then rallied back up to Wednesday’s 2179.00 opening print. Europe’s opens triggered a very quick drop that attacked 2172.00, but that has been retraced already back up to the 2179.00 high.
If, then…
Almost an entire day of selling pressure Wednesday ended without sellers gaining traction, and with an attraction below having been neutralized. That’s not very productive selling. No consequences were delivered intraday, but gapping up to and or through yesterday’s high would suggest they’re coming today. Not already trending down at Thursday’s open makes another high likely, and likely to test the unfinished business above at 2185.50 — which is suddenly much closer than it was at yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, a topping pattern continues to develop, so beware of an opening print that isn’t maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2178.50 would be likely tot trigger the 2176.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2173.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.