S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday trended down the 2179.00 open’s gap up to the afternoon bias environment’s 2168.00 exit.
Although not required to extend down deeper Thursday, it’s possible. Unfinished business below at 2171.00 was neutralized and held as support through the close, a not-so-nearby objective outstanding below is 2160.00. And although not required to recover, let alone to recover first, an equidistant not-so-nearby objective outstanding above is 2185.50.
Meanwhile, a topping pattern continues to develop. Not already trending down at Thursday’s open would make another high likely. Already trending down at Thursday’s open could be starting the next downleg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2180.75 | 2176.75 |
| …would target | 2186.00 | 2182.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.75 | 2169.00 |
| …would target | 2167.00 | 2163.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday to test 1.1205 was not extended higher, and its consolidation was supported by 1.1180 whose break would signal momentum reversing down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to 1363.50 was unable to overcome the attraction to “unfinished business below” to at least retest Tuesday’s opening gap down, so the morning trended back down to 1348.50. The reaction down remains intact so long as bounces hold 1353.00 as resistance.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up to test 20.50 was reversed back down to 20.15. Extending back under 20.05 would signal the gap back down to Tuesday’s 19.63 open is in-play .
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s recovery up to 172-26 resistance extended immediately Wednesday through its 173-04 confirmation on the way to attacking 174-00. The 176-10 objective is in-play.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Re-touching 43.35 resistance Wednesday morning was reversed back down to a fresh relative low testing 42.00 as support. Closing any lower would resume the decline targeting fresh lows at 36.60.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline didn’t slow Wednesday, quickly breaking under last month’s 2.60 low and extending down another nickel. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, so an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up would be likely to fail.
Mid-day Update… Hope springs a leak.
Early anticipation finds late sellers.
The ongoing pattern remains active, if not overactive. Abruptly rejecting the latest rally effort didn’t wait for post-open strength. The 2179.00 open’s gap up was reversed immediately, back down to yesterday’s 2177.50 close, and through it to 2170.00.
This morning’s 2171.75 bias-down signal needed to define the range’s lower-end. Essentially, it did. The pre-open restrained optimism and post-open immediate pessimism didn’t gain traction. They’re still potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
None of which requires an immediate recovery, or prevents extending lower. Not resolving Monday’s 2171.00 lower objective would have made its break likely Tuesday to compensate for the delay. Not resolving it Tuesday makes its test likelier to hold since Tuesday created a better anchor above. An afternoon rally remains possible, if not likely, so long as this morning’s lows hold.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed in Japan Thursday. Three large US department stores report earnings (KSS, M, JWN) which might inform Friday’s Retail Sales report. Otherwise, the noon hour’s 30-year auction is the day’s only influential “report”.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET