S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2181.00 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2186.00 | 2182.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2173.00 | 2169.00 |
| …would target | 2168.00 | 2164.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Skittish buyers.
Overnight bounce is retraced.
Testing the 2181.25 bias-up signal overnight was attacked twice more before the open. The restrained optimism was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But it was only pre-open, so it hadn’t yet been triggered.
And it wasn’t. The open immediately began dipping. The gap back down to yesterday’s 2177.50 close was filled, and then probed almost 2 points lower momentarily Neither bias signal was touched post-open, making this a no-bias environment.
Holding the pullback to yesterday’s closing gap would make the post-open pessimism ineffectual. Also potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. It’s similarly interesting that abruptly reversing a rally effort was influential pre-open. that’s perhaps a little too pessimistic, considering there is still unfinished business above at 2185.50.
No offsetting test of the bias-down signal is required. If tested anyway, it should define the range’s lower-end. Exiting this morning’s bias environment in positive territory would suggest this morning’s pessimistic effort had failed. An afternoon could rally begin.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is being greeted with restrained optimism. The 2181.50 high’s reaction down had been recovered almost entirely. Now its reaction down has been recovered almost entirely, too. The particular points of hesitation reflect a degree of pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, trending up to test 2185.50 can start developing quickly post-open. So much so, that NOT trending up quickly post-open could become bullish quickly, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Once more unto the wall, dear friends.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s rally fulfilled the required retest of Sunday night’s 2183.00 “new Globex trend extreme.” In the process, it created new attraction above it at 2185.50. Its attack was interrupted by the bigger pattern’s influence, which has been abruptly reversing rally efforts. This one was reversed deeply enough to fulfill the afternoon’s 2173.25 bias-down target. Bouncing into the close ended within 1 tick of Friday’s 2177.75 prior high close..
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially pulling back to 2174.50 then awaited Europe’s opens, That triggered a surge which extended up to this morning’s 2181.25 bias-up signal. Its 3-point reaction down is now being recovered almost entirely.
If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close requires there to be another new trend high close..Tuesday’s close AT Friday’s close did not qualify. But it could, in retrospect, by rejecting an intraday fresh high Wednesday, especially if 2185.50.were touched There’s plenty of “unfinished business below” at 2171.00, 2160.00 and lower to attract price down. So, now that it seems the open will be greeted in rally mode, the question is whether the ongoing pattern’s influence remains capable of causing rally efforts to abruptly fail.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2079.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2181.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2183.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2185.75 | 2181.25 |
| …would target | 2190.50 | 2186.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2176.00 | 2171.75 |
| …would target | 2170.50 | 2166.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.