S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow ranging session didn’t try rejecting last week’s drop into the weekend, so suddenly rallying Tuesday would be suspicious and likely to fail.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight greeted had recovered much before Monday’s open, but not all as ranging intraday around Friday’s 1342.00 low threatened a second consecutive lower close that to confirm Friday’s break lower and to require an eventual third lower close.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows overnight attacking 19.50 were recovered before Monday’s open, letting intraday action fluctuate very narrowly around Friday’s close without confirming its break, and without requiring an eventual third lower close.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s drop extended down overnight and through Monday’s open down to 170-21, but ended the morning bouncing back up to 171-22 resistance. The afternoon was spent there, too, as the relevant level behaved much more like a magnet, and much less like an inflection point. But its recovery is still able to identify a recovery underway, or not.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and extending higher through Monday’s open eventually up to test the 43.30 bounce limit. There is little room or time to further delay reversing down to resume the decline next targeting 36.60.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not immediately recovering 2.80 at Monday’s open suggested a different bottom must form by first testing 2.71 Monday and then closing back in positive territory above 2.77. The dip held 2.71 and recovered up to 2.77, but not closing above it. So, closing above 2.80 is now required to resume the rally.
Mid-day Update… The excitement of new highs (yawn).
Another narrow range.
This morning’s post-open drop to 2175.00 reacted up to 2178.25 during the bias environment. And that has reacted back down to 2175.00.
Not still trending away from the open helps to confirm it being an anchor. Having maintained the gap up above prior highs through the opening 15 minutes, any counter-trend action is likely only temporary.
Meanwhile, still not recovering also helps to confirm there is “unfinished business below.” The offsetting test of this morning’s 2171.00 bias-down signal remains outstanding.
Unfortunately, being stuck all this time between a rock and a hard place doesn’t make the first break’s direction any likelier. Or its ultimate reversal. The afternoon bias environment will soon come within view of lapsing, and might finally resolve the standoff.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The slow news week continues, as Tuesday’s calendar also has no high-profile or influential econ report scheduled..
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2184.50 | 2180.00 |
| …would target | 2189.50 | 2185.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2177.00 | 2172.50 |
| …would target | 2170.50 | 2166.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not isolated, but rejected.
Post-open action at fresh highs fails to hold.
The 2183.00 overnight high is a new Globex trend extreme that requires being tested intraday. Often that is the same day, but not necessarily. That remains possible today because the open’s gap up above Friday’s prior highs to 2180.25-2181.25 was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
That wasn’t maintained long enough to trigger the 2180.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Instead, a dip on its way down to 2175.00 triggered a sell signal under 2176.25. An offsetting test of the 2171.00 bias-down signal is in-play.
This interim detour down can extend even deeper, and last even longer. But it is still only temporary.Meanwhile, back above 2178.50 would start to signal the overnight high’s retest is in-play. It’s being attacked now, and should be rejected immediately if it is going to be rejected at all.