S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The pullback from touching 2183.00 overnight has extended down to touch Friday’s 2178.50 “lower prior high.” Its obligatory support hasn’t yet produced much of a bounce. Extending down deeper to greet the open back under Friday’s highs could isolate the overnight optimism and quickly extend down more deeply, setting a negative tone for the day. Bouncing instead to test last night’s 2183.00 “new Globex trend extreme” could neutralize its attraction — possibly also the 2185.00 bias-up target — should still be viewed cautiously for not attracting new strong-handed buyers, which would lead to collapse. Avoiding either of those scenarios would simply be bullish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… It’s still ticking.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s Employment Situation report triggered a pre-open surge from 2162.00, and opening gap up, and a post-open surge. Momentum slowed considerably before noon, and as the 2177.75 objective was met within 1 tick. It was eventually pierced by 3 ticks by the afternoon’s narrow flat-to-higher ranging into the close. A new trend high close was produced on a Friday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow flat-to-higher ranging persisted Sunday night, even narrower than Friday afternoon, eventually touching 2179.00. Europe’s opens launched a break higher that touched 2183.00. Its reaction down has touched 2180.00. .
If, then…
A new trend high close on a Friday requires there eventually to be at least one more. Friday was also a breakout of a multi-week range. So, already fulfilling the new trend high close today would also confirm Friday’s breakout. That would be bullish, and that’s why it’s today’s least likely resolution — because this particular multi-week range’s other characteristics make it likely to abruptly reject probes above it. Also, Friday’s high satisfied the next outstanding attraction above, and the only attraction above, without closing above it to put into play another attraction. Here’s another reason: Probing higher overnight is greeting the new week with extreme sentiment, which is often a sentiment extreme. Given the vulnerability to resolving down today, confirming Friday’s breakout instead would be that much more bullish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2182.25 would be likely to trigger the 2180.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2186.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2185.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2174.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Sunday night’s chaRTroom link
Globex opened at 6:00 pm ET. Not much has happened, other than ranging flat-to-higher, and piercing Friday’s high by 1 tick up to 2178.75.
You can monitor price action at the link below. I’ll be checking in occasionally. See you there…
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2184.75 | 2180.00 |
| …would target | 2190.00 | 2185.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2175.50 | 2171.00 |
| …would target | 2169.25 | 2164.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s gap up did everything needed to suggest it was headed higher. Everything, meaning nothing. Simply maintaining a gap up above all prior highs through the open tends to marginalize sellers for the morning. Actually, Friday’s gap up also extended higher during the opening 15 minutes of volatility, which was helpful confirmation, but not necessary.
Friday afternoon did nothing, too. But its only predictive value is in it being a new trend high close. On Fridays, that requires eventually there to produce another new trend high close. Not necessarily immediately, but eventually. So, an interim pullback is possible.
An interim pullback is also likely. One reason is the multi-week range that is likely to abruptly reject probes above it. A second reason is that Friday’s high satisfied the only outstanding attraction above by retesting last Sunday’s Globex trend extreme. Which informs the third reason for probably not extending higher Monday — since that highest outstanding objective was only neutralized, but held as resistance through the close.
Or, not. We’ll discuss the potential upside, whether momentary or extended, at this weekend’s Saturday Review. Join us at 9:30 am ET, its link will be emailed overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.