S&P
Pre-close View… Pre-payrolls paralysis.
SPECIAL NOTE: TODAY’S MARKET WRAP WILL START EARLY, PRE-CLOSE, AT 3:50 PM ET.
Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow morning’s pre-open Employment Situation report had suggested already that the balance of this afternoon would be contained within the range so far. In fact, the noon hour’s high peaked within 3 ticks of the 2164.25 overnight high
The afternoon’s bias environment duplicated yesterday’s behavior, generally. Trending down to 2156.75 bottomed at the bias environment’s 2:30 exit, firming into the final hour’s entry at 2159.00. Weak-handed sellers did not gain traction.
Yesterday that firming extended through a buy signal to target a fresh high. The setup’s counterpart today would be triggered above 2159.75. Meanwhile, holding 2159.00 does leave the door open to dipping deeper today.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The rejection of Tuesday’s false breakout extended lower overnight to have already printed 1.11133 before Thursday’s open. The reversal remains intact so long as bounces now hold a test of .
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending Wednesday’s pullback overnight was already recovered enough on the BOE move for Thursday’s open to gap up. A fresh high testing 1375.50 remains likely, and also remains likely to hold.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows overnight attacked 20.05 before back to unchanged on Thursday morning’s BOE report. Closing above 20.55. would signal the rally to test 21.15 had resumed.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight at or under 171-22 responded bullishly to Thursday morning’s policy statement, probing intraday well above the 172-26/173-04 buy signal — and retesting 172-26 as support. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm at least a test of 176-10 is in-play.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s bounce exceeded Tuesday’s test of the 40.80 bounce limit, filling a recent outstanding gap at 41.55 and then probing its prior high above 42.00. Closing back under 40.65 would resume the decline.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength, which managed only to soften any knee-jerk reaction while ranging choppily sideways. Almost any initial rally Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend.
Mid-day Update… Big news coming, tomorrow.
Earlier optimism wasn’t very contagious.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility had trended up to 2162.00, maintaining a gap up above yesterday’s highs. That enabled trending higher today before the last 60-90 minutes. But trending higher wasn’t required.
A drop back down to 2154.00 had put into play a test of 2150.50. It could have been invalidated back above 2159.00 by 10:30, or above 2162.00 by 11:30-noon. Neither condition was met, so the test of 2150.50 becomes “unfinished business below” that requires being retested eventually — probably along the way to retesting Tuesday morning’s oversold RSIs at 2141.50.
Meanwhile, the noon hour briefly touched 2163.50 before dipping back down to 2158.00. Neither of the 2157.50-2165.25 bias signals was touched, so this is a no-bias environment. Trending beyond either signal could resume as the bias environment begins lapsing would be free to trend.
Thursday afternoons prior to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report can become paralyzed by anxiousness.That may define this afternoon’s price action. But back above 2161.25 and 2164.00 would be vulnerable to trend higher.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 5, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is essentially being released in a vacuum, with no other high-profile or influential report near it. The afternoon’s rig count is reliable for influencing Crude Oil, which in turn tends to impact the market momentarily.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2170.50 | 2165.25 |
| …would target | 2175.50 | 2170.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2162.50 | 2157.50 |
| …would target | 2156.50 | 2151.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.