S&P
Post-open Review… Gap up absorbed.
Opening gains fail to hold.
The 2158.75 opening print as above yesterday’s high. That’s a gap up. The opening 15 minutes of volatility extended higher to 2162.00, trending in a series of higher highs and higher lows. That’s a gap up, maintained.
Yesterday’s rally couldn’t extend this morning otherwise, not since its buyers had failed to gain traction. So, maintaining a gap up allows the rally to resume this morning. But it’s not required.
The open’s 2161.00 inflection point was probed no higher than its first 4 minutes before reversing more than 2 points back down. That wasn’t required to extend down, but it did. And the 2159.00 bias-up signal failed to trigger.
An offsetting test of the 2150.50 bias-down signal is now in-play. Its test would likely give way to also retest Tuesday’s 2141.50 low. The post-open dip has tested 2154.00.
That 10:15 signal could have been invalidated by recovering the 2159.00 bias-up signal at 10:30. It wasn’t. Invalidation is still possible at 11:30, but then by recovering the bias-up signal’s test up to 2162.00.
Meanwhile,a bounce is now retesting the 2159.00 bias-up signal. Back under 2157.50 would signal the next downleg underway. Any higher could lead to invalidating the downside attractions.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The BOE policy shift was greeted at 2158.00, and triggered a surge up to 2164.25. Its eventual reaction down is testing 2158.00 as support. Reactions by precious metals, bonds and currencies remain intact.
There’s no assurance of triggering the 2159.00 bias-up signal, or even touching it post-open. Either setup would put into play either a higher or lower objective. Whichever is signaled — if either — would likely extend beyond its initial objective, whether this afternoon or tomorrow.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding up, for now.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference… SPECIAL NOTE: THE CHARTROOM ENTRY IS BEING REDESIGNED TO STREAMLINE IT, WHILE ALSO MAINTAINING A RESTRICTED ACCESS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUGGESTIONS!
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s opening blip-up to 2152.00 reacted down aggressively, but held 2147.00-2148.00 support. Just as aggressively, 2152.00 was recovered, and that was the end of Wednesday’s weakness. Gradually eking higher eventually tested 2158.00 into the close. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was left outstanding.
BOE Monetary Policy Committee members.
Overnight action’s new info…
A brief surge to fresh highs attacked 2161.00, which was retraced as quickly back down to its 2156.00 origin. A choppy sideways 3-4 point range ranging since then has centered around.2156.00-2158.00. This might be considered as anxious paralysis ahead of today’s BOE policy statement, generally expected to ease.
If, then…
Wednesday’s late break higher came too late to gain traction. So, extending its rally must begin by gapping up Thursday. Whether today or tomorrow, a retest of Sunday night’s 2177.75 “new Globex trend extreme” would be in-play. Otherwise, greeting Thursday’s open already in decline would still target a retest of Tuesday’s oversold RSIs at 2141.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2160.75 would be likely to trigger the 2159.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2155.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2164.75 | 2159.00 |
| …would target | 2169.75 | 2165.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2156.00 | 2150.50 |
| …would target | 2150.25 | 2144.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday had formed an Ascending Triangle. It was unlikely to break higher because it appeared around Tuesday’s highs, during Wednesday morning, when probing above Tuesday’s highs had required gapping up Wednesday morning.
The Triangle could have broken lower, but that attempt ended as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. The reward was fresh highs up to 2158.00-2159.00, largely produced by the close.
The break higher came too late to gain traction. Gapping up Thursday could extend higher anyway, targeting a retest of Sunday night’s 2177.75 “new Globex trend extreme.” Otherwise, greeting Thursday’s open already in decline would still target a retest of Tuesday’s oversold RSIs at 2141.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.