S&P
Post-open Review… Not married to it.
“New Globex trend extreme” isolated.
One more round of chaRTroom link roulette…
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The overnight high was complex enough to be considered a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires being retested intraday. Often the same day, but not necessarily. Especially not if the overnight highs are isolated from intraday action.
These were.
The open was deep enough to consider it testing Friday’s 2167.00 cash session close. That opened the door to isolating the overnight action. Soon its shallow bounce had resolved down sharply to 2162.25. Its recovery up to 2169.25 avoided triggering either bias signal.
That could extend back up to 2171.25-2172.00, remaining within Friday’s range, still isolating the overnight action. Meanwhile, back under 2166.00 would signal the post-open bounce had ended.
Exiting the bias environment under the open’s 2162.25 low would help confirm the overnight high’s isolation. The afternoon price action of that setup should behave very bearishly, targeting at least a probe under Thursday’s 2153.50 low..
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
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The overnight high’s pullback to 2168.50 is being retested by 2 ticks, after an interim bounce to 2171.50. Opening at or under Friday’s 2167.00 cash session close to isolate the new highs overnight would be vulnerable to a deep intraday drop. Otherwise, retesting the 2177.75 overnight high would be in-play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Did the music stop last night?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s flat-to-lower open extended down nearly 7 points to 2156.50 before reversing up. The slingshot extended through Thursday’s highs to attack 2172.00 into the noon hour. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, supported by 2166.00. Friday produced fresh highs despite Thursday’s rally not having gained, so its correction was left outstanding. A new trend high close was barely avoided, and no traction was gained.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night started optimistically. The open gapped up to a new high at 2174.00. Reacting down to 2170.00 filled the gap back to Friday’s futures close, stopping 3 points above Friday’s 2167.00 cash session close. Recovering to fresh highs at 2177.50 formed a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require eventual intraday retest. But that didn’t stop trending back down to fresh overnight lows at 2168.50 — still above Friday’s cash session close.
If, then…
Did the music stop? There might be one or two chairs left… This time. Probing fresh highs Monday would be no different than if done Friday afternoon, and remains extra vulnerable to being rejected aggressively. And the consequence is now greater.than if Friday had yet probed high enough to encounter counter-trend sponsorship. That template may be developing already. The requirement to eventually retest last night’s new highs wouldn’t prevent extending down sharply this morning — especially if the probe above Friday’s highs is isolated to the overnight. But holding or recovering positive territory would be attracted back to the overnight highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2171.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2173.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2175.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Tonight’s chaRTroom link
Click here to monitor overnight price action in the chaRTroom. Friday’s close at the range’s upper-end could have extended the rally easily, but didn’t. At least some obligatory probe of higher highs is likely. Extending it — let alone maintaining it — not necessarily.
See you there…
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2179.00 | 2173.50 |
| …would target | 2185.00 | 2179.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2165.50 | 2160.00 |
| …would target | 2159.75 | 2154.25 |
| Signal status:NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.