S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Pre-open fluctuation is still overlapping Friday’s 2168.00 close, essentially unchanged. Lacking momentum this near the open doesn’t prevent suddenly finding sponsorship to attempt trending. But whether probing fresh highs up to 2175.50 or backing-and-filling down to 2060.50, durable trending is unlikely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Bubbling up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Simply not gapping down Friday was already unlikely to resume Thursday’s decline. Greeting the open unchanged around 2058.00, but having pulled back from an overnight rally up to 2165.00, Friday rallied throughout up to 2169.00..
Overnight action’s new info…
Opening flat Sunday night around 2168.00 eventually surged to fresh highs at 2172.50. That was retraced as quickly, and soon reversed into negative territory. A blip-down testing 2163.75 in reaction to Europe’s opens was recovered to 2171.25. That has returned back down to 2168.00 instead of yet extending higher.
If, then…
The overnight high was not complex, so it was not a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest. But it’s likely, anyway. Even without Friday’s rally gaining traction, potential remained intact up to 2171.25. Further potential up to 2175.50 became likelier for having absorbed Thursday’s detour down to 2153.50 and to compensate for a terror-related event in Munich having inhibited Friday afternoon’s rally leg. Not holding last night’s low could trigger a morning pullback instead.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2162.00 would be likely to trigger the 2163.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2171.25 would be likely to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal.
Overnight Globex chaRTroom link
Has an entire weekend actually elapsed without any geopolitical shock waves greeting the Globex open? That seemed to have become the norm. I have faith in the market begin able to absorb this surprising circumstance. We’ll monitor the open at 6:00 PM ET anyway to be sure.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2174.75 | 2169.00 |
| …would target | 2181.25 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2169.50 | 2163.75 |
| …would target | 2163.75 | 2158.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Not gapping down Friday was likelier to bounce than to resume Thursday’s decline. Friday’s rally from 2158.00 to 2169.00 went further.
Closing easily above Thursday morning’s lows put back into play any objective created by Thursday’s open holding those lows. That’s 2171.25. Absorbing Thursday’s detour down to 2153.50 is likely to be rewarded. And Friday afternoon’s rally leg being inhibited by headlines might be compensated for its delay. So, testing 2171.25 would likely probe above it to 2175.50.
Reacting down again, instead, is unlikely — this pattern has been there, done that, from this area. So, extending down into Monday’s open could reverse back up to form a Pivot Reversal, or else extend down more dramatically intraday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
We’ll game out possible opens and review the bigger picture at this weekend’s Saturday Review, beginning at 9:30 am ET in the chaRTroom here.