S&P
Daily Spot… (re-sending)
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline resumed Friday, trending down to the lowest levels since first recovering from the Brexit reaction, still targeting a retest of the Brexit reaction’s 1.0945 lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above 1325.50 and 1329.00 Thursday didn’t prevent gapping back down under both Friday. If not recovered intraday, then the gap back up to Thursday’s close becomes an attraction above. But its recovery is needed before being assured that the pullback’s bottom has ended.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back down Friday under 18.75 ranged around it intraday instead of extending lower. Closing back above 18.85 and higher would signal the pullback had ended, and a retest of the highs was underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding the 171-22 buy signal Thursday didn’t prevent probing above it overnight to 172-09. Its reaction down into Friday’s open bounced off of 170-22 to probe above the overnight high. Closing above 173-04 would confirm a recovery leg underway targeting 176-10.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The long-standing 43.80 target was met.Friday morning, even before the afternoon’s bearish rig count data. Closing above 44.25 would suggest the decline would start bottoming. Closing under 43.65 would signal the decline was extending
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions of holding the maximum 2.65 pullback limit were squeezed Friday by the weekend’s impending illiquidity, surging to attack the 2.80 buy signal. Recovering it and 2.85 would signal and confirm the 2.98 prior high’s retest was underway, and likely to be probed.
Mid-day Update… Hovering.
Probing back into yesterday morning’s range.
The choppy open’s ranging under 2060.25 and its “dry cleaners morning” setup didn’t change how much room was allowed simply to fluctuate. The 2164.50 overnight high could be probed by 1 point before even touching the morning’s bias-up signal.
In fact, the no-bias environment attacked the overnight high to within 2-3 ticks. The noon hour extended up to 2167.25.
That’s within 1 tick of this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And a narrow range hasn’t been able to break higher for the past hour. Now it’s too late to trigger. Probing above it would be “no-bias trending,” likely to react back down into the bias range to 2165.00. Any lower would target 2165.50.
Breaking above 2168.00 could extend to probe Wednesday’s high up to 2171.25. Or higher, while still being vulnerable to reversing back down sharply before the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s sole econ report has no track record for influencing price action.
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2173.50 | 2167.50 |
| …would target | 2179.00 | 2173.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2166.25 | 2160.25 |
| …would target | 2160.25 | 2154.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Gravitational pull.
Choppy open makes path up available.
The pre-open reaction down from the 2164.50 overnight high had held several tests of 2160.00. Post-open action slid immediately to 2157.25.
3-4 more 3-4 point swings and 45 minutes later, price action was still holding 2160.00 resistance. Three of the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints had overlapped the same relevant level — yesterday’s 2158.50 cash session close — signaling a ‘dry cleaners morning.”
While trending is unlikely, there’s a lot of room for noise. Especially back up to the 2164.50 overnight high, or 1 point higher just to touch the bias-up signal. An interim attraction at 2163.00 is being tested now, and might be an obstacle.
Gravitating up remains likely so long as 2160.00 holds as support. Probing even higher into the afternoon still has potential to test 2171.25. And a test of 2171.25 still has a likelihood for reacting back down sharply.