S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight bounce up to 2164.50 had pulled back to 2160.00. Twice. Each reaction up has been shallower and shallower. Gapping up doesn’t prevent a post-open dip that probes yesterday’s lows this morning — but that dip and probe would likely recover. Meanwhile, resuming the overnight rally would target a retest of Wednesday’s highs, which also would be likely to reverse back into the range.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Another shot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s lower close failed to confirm Wednesday’s breakout. The alternative setup was fulfilled by trending down sharply instead. No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, but oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Thursday’s 2153.50 low, as was unfinished business above at 2171.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s 2158.00-2159.00 had ranged flat-to-lower down to 2156.00, but recovered entirely ahead of Europe’s opens. Trending since then has extended up to test yesterday afternoon’s 2164.25.sell signal as resistance.
If, then…
It is significant that not only was Wednesday’s breakout not confirmed, but that its reaction was to trend back down. Another breakout attempt today is unlikely. So, attempting another breakout attempt today would likely be rejected, too, perhaps more substantially than Thursday. Not gapping down gives the morning an opportunity to retest Wednesday’s 2169.75 highs, and to fulfill the 2171.25 unfinished business above, first. But similar to confirming Wednesday’s breakout, the alternative to exploiting the opportunity would be to resume Thursday’s decline.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2166.50 would be likely to trigger the 2165.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2161.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2171.50 | 2165.50 |
| …would target | 2177.25 | 2171.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2159.00 | 2153.00 |
| …would target | 2154.00 | 2148.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s breakout from a four-session range was not confirmed Thursday. As was expected for this pattern, the alternative to confirming would be a deep rejection of the breakout. Not just avoiding a positive close, but closing sharply lower.
Equally important is what that means for this pattern. Simply not confirming Wednesday’s breakout would have kept the door open to extending higher anyway. Trying to extend higher after Thursday’s dive would very likely be reversed to fresh lows.
No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, so only gapping open beyond either end of Thursday’s range could resume trending before late-afternoon. Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2153.50 low may facilitate a gap down. Meanwhile, lower lows overnight could already start recovering from 2152.00 and 2148.00.
Thursday’s unfinished business above at 2171.25 doesn’t prevent a deeper drop from developing. Already firming into Friday’s open, preferably after probing lower lows overnight — just not gapping down — would likely retest 2171.25 before the weekend. And then drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Either, or.
Lower and lower lows.
Each of today’s timing windows has probed lower. Relentless intraday trending can be reversed, if the bias environment exit retraces the last timing window’s move.
The bias environment began lapses between 2:30-3:00. Recovering from the 2155.75 low to enter the final hour back above 2161.00 would be rewarded by probing fresh session highs.
Meanwhile, the bias environment began lapsing under the noon hour’s low. Entering the final hour under the bias environment’s 2155.75 low would give sellers traction. And the next lower objective would be the 2148.00 area.