S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 4-day sequence through Wednesday had suggested another fresh low coming Thursday under Wednesday’s 1.1017 low. Surging Thursday up to 1.1085 in reaction to ECB’s policy statement was reversed to fresh lows at 1.1004, still targeting a retest of Brexit’s 1.0945 prior low.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s gap up was retraced enough to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close before reversing up above the 1325.50 buy signal to test 1330.00, which recovering through the close could complete a bottom..
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing Thursday still needs to recover above 18.75-18.85 to signal momentum is reversing up.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Lower lows Thursday morning finally tested the lower-end of the pullback’s 170-16/171-08 target area. Its fuller test wasn’t required, and it was probed under 170-00, but that allowed lowering the buy signal to 171-22 — which was attacked into the afternoon.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still holding the 46.05 bounce limit overnight (45.25 basis Aug) was reversed by late-morning Thursday to test Wednesday’s 45.00 opening gap, still targeting 43.80 (43.00 basis Aug).
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday morning’s EIA report after testing the 2.65 pullback limit overnight was still a position of weakness, but at least it could be an oversold position of weakness. The news didn’t push price lower, but a recovery hasn’t yet emerged.
Mid-day Update… Millimeters and inches.
Was the upside objective invalidated?
That’s the most important question facing the market today. There was no outstanding higher objective until this morning’s 2164.25 bias-down signal held through 10:15.
It put into play an offsetting test of the 2171.25 bias-up signal.
Was that test Invalidated? Not at 10:30, despite being attacked then. Invalidating it then required exiting the bias environment under the 2159.75 bias-down TARGET. You’ll never guess what a sudden plunge from 2167.50 was attacking through 11:30-noon.
The 2159.75 bias-down target. To within 1 tick.
It’s still being tested now, during the noon hour, while RSIs diverge positively. But that upside objective is looking pretty dubious. No other upside objective, and a big target (2168.00) tested and retested. This market can get very bearish very quickly if that upside objective isn’t valid.
Back above 2163.00 would be the first indication of retesting yesterday’s high. But there’s not much time available to get that done.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is thin again. The morning’s report has no track record for influencing price action. The afternoon report’s impact on Crude Oil is greater than on the market.
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2172.25 | 2166.25 |
| …would target | 2177.25 | 2171.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2165.00 | 2159.00 |
| …would target | 2160.00 | 2154.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not THIS again.
Choppy open is threatening to range narrowly..
Tuesday’s gap down resolved by not resolving, and just chopping around until the final minutes. Tiday’s gap down is shallower, but it’s under yesterday afternoon’s lows, and it hasn’t yet resolved.
Today’s resolution might not end very far from its open. But an intraday probe above yesterday’s high is likely since the 2164.25 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2171.25 bias-up signal is in-play.
Today’s resolution might end very far into negative territory. Not confirming yesterday’s breakout by a second consecutive higher close, should instead trend down intraday.
The open has only fluctuated around yesterday afternoon’s 2166.50 lows. That lower-end held while its range attacked 2171.25. Attacking 2175.25 from this level should be no less likely.
\Meanwhile, there is not much of a requirement to probe higher, but that’s the likely scenario so long as sellers don’t gain traction.