S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Yesterday afternoon’s 2166.50 lower-end is still resisting the 2163.00 pullback limit test’s reaction up. A post-open dip would have room down to 2161.50 while still being likely to recover, and to probe yesterday’s highs — probably also this morning’s 2171.25 bias-up signal. Dipping much deeper for much longer would more likely put the morning on defense.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Holding pattern.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session was significant, fulfilling several items of “unfinished business above” at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00. The overnight rally had neutralized the first two. A post-open dip to 2158.50 preceded recovering to neutralize the last objective. It was tested up to 2169.75, which was touched several times. The afternoon’s sideways action down to 2166.50 gained no traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s sideways ranging persisted through Europe’s opens, which barely pierced Wednesday’s high. A dip has tested and retested 2163.00. A bounce is now testing Wednesday afternoon’s 2166.50 lower-end as resistance, with the ECB policy statement just minutes away.
If, then…
A pullback had room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway. So, holding the overnight low is important to this morning’s price action. Wednesday’s 2169.75 high can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.50, which is likely so long as bias-down doesn’t trigger. Regardless, today’s close may or may not confirm Wednesday’s breakout, which could create a very predictable intraday pattern Friday..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2172.50 would be likely to trigger the 2171.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2166.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2163.00 would be likely to trigger the 2164.25 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2177.25 | 2171.25 |
| …would target | 2181.50 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2170.25 | 2164.25 |
| …would target | 2165.75 | 2159.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s session was significant, fulfilling several items of “?unfinished business above” at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00.
They can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.00. Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway.
Most important is whether Thursday will confirm Wednesday’s breakout, which would essentially entrench the rally and inhibit a counter-trend decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The fourth of a 4-day sequence Wednesday fulfilled its likeliest scenario of not confirming the third day’s break lower. The fourth day’s overnight low formed optimistically short of touching a prior low. This suggests the sequence will repeat again, with another break lower for 1-2 days.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Days of teasing at the 1333.00 buy signal was resolved by gapping down sharply under last Thursday’s 1320.50 lows and attacking 1313.00 intraday. The gap down was neutralized so that closing above 1322.00 can signal that a bottom is forming, and closing above 1330.00 can launch an upleg.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two days of probing under the 20.05 pullback limit weren’t rejected, and instead gapped down to fresh lows at 19.45-19.60. Back above 19.75-19.85 could trigger an aggressive rally, but there is meanwhile potential for extending down to 18.90-19.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One more dip under 171-08 Wednesday should suffice for this initial downleg to retrace 173-04 and then back up to 176-10 to complete the topping pattern.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows at Wednesday’s open only attacked the 42.65-43.45 target area down to 43.70 before bouncing in reaction to the morning’s EIA report. The gap open requires being retested, and should be probed into the target area.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday to Friday’s 2.67 low probed lower to attack the 2.65 pullback potential. Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness under all recent prior lows has little room or time for absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.