S&P
Mid-day Update… And?
All upside requirements fulfilled.
The 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme that had printed last week required being retested intraday. Its retest was likely also to touch 2169.00. This morning’s 2169.75 high neutralized the attraction.
Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the morning’s high required a retest. The noon hour’s dip to 2166.50 was recovered back up to 2169.75, and 3-minute RSI didn’t recover to overbought. The retest is fulfilled.
Oversold RSIs at this morning’s 2158.50 low developed during the open, so they don’t require retest. It’s still an attraction, but not required.
Another influence may soon be relevant:
Today’s new highs are attempting a breakout from a multi-session range. Assuming the breakout is maintained, tomorrow would be the confirmation session — either closing higher to confirm the breakout, or not. Testing the room for noise above 2168.00 to 2175.00 without confirming the breakout would be bearish.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s retest of this morning’s high will probably visit 2171.25. Back under 2166.25 would signal momentum already reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 21, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s thin econ calendar ends Thursday, which is littered with high-profile and influential reports, beginning with the ECB policy statement and Draghi presser. Philly Fed is the only regional report that actually impacts price action. And although not highlighted, the two housing sector reports offer an opportunity for contradictory numbers, or for each confirming a surprise.
*ECB Policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2175.50 | 2169.25 |
| …would target | 2181.00 | 2175.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2169.00 | 2163.00 |
| …would target | 2164.25 | 2158.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back to the highs.
Post-open dip recovers, and reverses.
The reaction down from 2167.25 greeted the open at 2163.75. Post-open action immediately plunged to test the 2160.75 bias-up signal as support, down to 2158.50.
That was the first half of the first 15 minutes of volatility.
1-minute RSI made a higher oversold while 3-minute RSI had been persistently oversold. But selling was done. An inverted Head & Shoulders formed, which then broke higher out of the first half-hour.
Bias-up triggered easily at 10:15. The 2165.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 2-3 ticks just minutes later. Reacting down into the EIA report has now recovered to probe above the overnight high. Last week’s 2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is being attacked to within 1 tick.
Pessimism reflected by the post-open dip is largely rewarded by the reversal well above its origin. But only attacking last week’s high — which requires actually being touched intraday, and probably probed — is new pessimism that has yet to be rewarded.
Extending higher could still reach 2175.00 before reversing down would be credible.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 2167.25 has extended down to 2163.00. That was the latest upside objective created yesterday morning, so it is trying to offer support in being tested from above. It may not. The pullback has room down to 2161.50 before even threatening not to resume rallying this morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.