S&P
The First Trade… New highs.
But Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s horrible narrow choppy range at least remained influenced by ongoing intraday testing of support, further confirming that sellers are weak-handed. Holding 2154.00 bias-down signal created a higher attraction at 2163.00 that would become unfinished business. A late surge extended to 2160.00 through the futures close. It was too late for its sponsorship to gain traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
A pullback 2155.25 bottomed before midnight, and a rally resumed soon after. Europe’s opens were greeted by surging to attack 2163.00. A quick correction soon resumed rallying again, extending so far to 2167.25. That’s within 3 ticks of last week’s Globex high, but already above all prior intraday highs.
If, then…
Not gaining traction yesterday made it necessary to gap up today if this morning intends to rally. Gapping up doesn’t ensure rallying, but it gets a benefit of the doubt until disproved. A pullback has room to test 2161.50 before even threatening not to recover. Last week’s 2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme” still requires intraday retest, and not just to within 3 ticks. Hesitating overnight within 3 ticks does reflect pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2168.75 would be likely to exceed the 2165.75 bias-up target through 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2160.75 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2166.75 | 2160.75 |
| …would target | 2171.75 | 2165.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2158.50 | 2152.50 |
| …would target | 2153.50 | 2147.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s horrible narrow choppy range did leave two influences. Both are functions of its ongoing intraday testing of support, neither recovering from it nor breaking lower.
Holding the morning’s 2154.00 bias-down signal created unfinished business above at its 2163.00 bias-up signal. That joins the prior morning’s yet unmet 2163.75 bias-up target, and last week’s 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme.
Meanwhile, the testing of 2154.00 may have chipped away at its support. This will be relevant if Wednesday doesn’t rally early. Breaking lower would target the 2148.00 area and potentially also 2146.00.
The past four sessions have formed a multi-session range. A valid break in either direction should begin by gapping beyond the range. Leaving the range post-open would be likelier reverse back into the range.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday after Friday’s break wasn’t confirmed does not undermine the attraction to new lows. But it does suggest that Wednesday won’t confirm Tuesday’s break be confirmed. So, probing fresh lows intraday but closing positive would form a bottom.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow choppy ranging Tuesday continued to be resisted by the 1333.00 buy signal that would trigger upon closing above it.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday only ranged narrowly between 19.90–20.05 despite Monday’s dip needing to be rejected without much further delay. Gapping up Wednesday could serve by proxy, but any further delay to recovering would become more likely to extend the reaction down .
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still hovering Tuesday just above the pullback target’s 170-16/171-08 upper-end would now signal momentum reversing back up by closing above 173-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s flat-to-lower ranging maintains near-term potential for fulfilling the minimum 43.00 objective. Tuesday’s post-close API or Wednesday’s EIA reports may be the catalyst(s).
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Continuing to range narrowly Tuesday has created congestion that makes the next trending attempt less likely to extend before at least retesting this current narrow range. Nevertheless, closing above 2.80-2.85 would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher.
Mid-day Update… Chop.
Can’t get off the morning lows.
The open’s dip to 2153.25 could have avoided being probed had its reaction produced a break to fresh highs. Fresh highs were probed, but too shallowly and too briefly to reflect strong-handed sponsorship. A reaction down pierced 2153.25.
Not that a bottom has finally formed. Still ranging choppily at session lows, that could extend down to 2152.00 or to the 2148.00 area.
Today’s session wasn’t likely to produce serious selling, and it hasn’t. Post-action ranging has been relatively choppy. Although a rally effort isn’t required, exiting each timing window without yet recovering suggests just makes lower likelier.