S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is emptier than any other day I’ve seen in a long time. The pre-open MBA apps has no track record for influencing price action. While the post-open EIA report impacts Crude Oil, it has been having only a momentary effect on the broader market.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2163.50 | 2157.50 |
| …would target | 2169.75 | 2163.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2158.00 | 2152.00 |
| …would target | 2152.75 | 2146.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Weaving a bullish web.
Open’s dip creates another upside objective.
Tuesday’s open was essentially 2154.50, which was also Friday’s close and Monday’s open. Seems to be a relevant area. Surging up to 2158.00 didn’t lessen its attraction, as a reaction down touched 2153.25.
Another bounce attacked 2158.00 in time to avoid triggering the 2154.00 bias-down signal. An offsetting test of the 2163.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
Despite the upside attraction, a rally isn’t gaining traction. That might be because the 2153.25 low wasn’t fully formed, so recovering will be difficult until at least touching 2153.00.
Fresh highs above 2158.00 would be credible for leaving behind the 2153.25 lows. Otherwise, backing-and-filling this morning remains likely, regardless of the new objective created above.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Bouncing off of the 2151.25 overnight low was extended to 6 points before dipping again to 2154.00. But 2158.00 still seems to be the most reliable line in the sand for anticipating this morning’s price action — be it trending back up through yesterday’s highs, or else backing-and-filling to test the 2148.00 area.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Do over.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s post-close Turkey plunger had been rejected at Sunday night’s open. Fresh highs overnight up to 2163.25 were retraced to greet Monday’s open back at Friday’s 2154.25 cash session close. A quick dip to 2153.00 was recovered enough only to attack Sunday night’s highs. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 2163.75..
Overnight action’s new info…
Very narrow ranging around Monday’s 2160.00 close finally resolved, down. The first leg attacked 2155.00 before bouncing 3 points coming into Europe’s opens. The next leg attacked 2151.00 coming out of Europe’s opens. Now a bounce is testing 2155.00 as resistance, back at Friday’s close and Monday’s open.
If, then…
The only nearby attraction is yesterday’s “unfinished business above” at 2163.75 and then last week’s.2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme which requires intraday retest. Its orbit includes “lower prior highs” in the 2148.00 handle. The rubber band need not test 2148.00 before being stretched enough for snapping back up this morning, unless already snapping back up through the open. That would risk triggering a downleg under 2146.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2154.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2153.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.