S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s weakness almost touched last week’s 1.1052 reaction low to the ECB commenting on QE. Its recovery was apparently only temporary after all, and fresh lows could be probed soon.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Tuesday night fulfilled the retest of Brexit’s spike up to 1362.60, surging through its 1369.50 target to test 1377.00. Upside momentum remains intact with potential to 1385.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 1366.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding above 19.90 Wednesday doesn’t keep in-play any particular targets above, but it does avoid launching a new downleg or deeper correction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight strength up to 177-04 was reversed to unchanged soon after Wednesday’s open, and then into negative territory testing 175-18 intraday. The open’s gap up to 176-28 requires an eventual retest. so long as 174-10 / 174-28 holds as support.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down Tuesday night stopped optimistically short of touching last week’s 45.85 low before bouncing back into positive territory to test 47.55. The decline’s momentum remains intact, next targeting 45.00-45.40.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s corrective dip extended down to 2.69 Wednesday, holding “lower prior highs” before bouncing back into positive territory. This would suffice as a pullback low, but not delaying a retest of the 2.98 high close could be too optimistic ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.
Mid-day Update… Slow-playing the news.
FOMC and resistance just ahead.
This morning’s fulfilled bias-down environment attempted what two prior timing windows had tried and failed — yet another fresh low was recovered back to a prior high.
This time worked. The recovery extended up to 2090.00.
The 2065.75 low had essentially fulfilled the renewed bias-down signal. It was never in-play, since the 2071.00 bias-down target was recovered through 10:15. Lower lows were possible, despite not renewing the bias-down. But not renewing had left the door open to recovering.
And the recovery extended through the noon hour.
Now a 5-point pullback is reserving optimism ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Minutes. A knee-jerk reaction and resolution are not required to be in either direction, so be careful with any position going into the news.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 7, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s ADP is reliable for influencing price action. It also helps us to gauge market sentiment ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Any reaction Thursday is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s other reports. The late-morning EIA reports (stacked due to the holiday-shortened week) include Crude Oil, which is reliable for triggering a reaction.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.50 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2099.50 | 2091.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2084.50 | 2076.00 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2071.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Second chances in a choppy market.
Another double-pumped recovery fails.
Last night’s dip under yesterday’s 2072.25 lows had recovered back up to fresh overnight highs. But that wasn’t maintained, and overnight lows were probed.
A bounce greeted the open, and it quickly touched the 2076.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Quickly reacting down to 2068.00 was recovered back up to fresh post-open highs. But that wasn’t maintained, and overnight lows have been probed even lower.
Sellers and buyers both are getting a lot of second chances. And those second chances are being exploited.
Buyers now have a second chance to retake control. The 2071.00 bias-down target wasn’t broken through 10:15, so the bias-down signal is not renewed. The target had been met already, and it was met later anyway, while RSIs avoided becoming oversold. The nearest renewed bias-down target has been met, too.
None of which changes that this is a bias-down environment. But renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15 would have essentially put into play 2055.00-2056.50. That was avoided. It can be exploited by exiting the bias environment in rally mode recovering 2076.00.
Otherwise, 2055.00-2056.50 is the next lower objective, and the next opportunity to launch a rally back through last week’s highs.