S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Reacting down from overnight highs at 2098.00 has now dipped a little back under yesterday’s highs, down to 2089.75. That’s the level whose recovery through another close has signaled the next higher objective at 2125.25.
But its recovery Friday didn’t prevent an interim pullback. Neither did its recovery yesterday.
Not gapping up this morning would suggest negative territory will be probed at some point today — especially if overnight highs were probed despite not gapping up. Gapping up above yesterday’s highs and extending quickly through overnight highs would be the most reliable bullish signal for today.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Signs of life.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s post-open attempt to extend the overnight lows was inappropriately-timed. Its weak-handed sponsorship tested 2066.00, before reversing back up through the balance of the session. Eventually testing 2094.00 neutralized the attraction to last Friday’s 2093.00 higher prior lows, late enough to avoid reacting down.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging absorbed Europe’s weak opens and temporarily probed fresh highs up to 2098.00. Yesterday’s late highs are being tested now as support down to 2091.00.
If, then…
Wednesday’s recovery didn’t gain traction, despite trending up into the close. So, extending the rally this morning without delay would require gapping up, probably above 2097.00. And having tested 2097.00 already overnight, its 2098.00 should be exceeded quickly, too. Not gapping up, or not maintaining a gap up, would be vulnerable to another pullback — perhaps briefer and shallower than yesterday — down to 2082.00..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2099.50 would be likely to trigger the 2097.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2092.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.50 | 2097.00 |
| …would target | 2110.755 | 2103.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.50 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending down overnight, reversing a recovery back down to fresh lows, and probing under overnight lows, all expended selling pressure. But along the way to testing 2066.00, sellers blinked — they failed to exploit the opportunity to renew the bias-down signal.
The balance of the session reversed back up to attack 2094.00 before the cash session close. It was probed minutes later. This neutralized last Friday’s 2093.00 higher prior lows.
Still, buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. Extending the rally without delay would require gapping up, probably above 2097.00. Not gapping up would be vulnerable to another pullback, albeit briefer and shallower down to 2082.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Rewarding time.
Ready to fulfill the consequences of last week’s rally?
Closing last week above 2089.75 had created the requirement for eventually probing above the pre-Brexit high — probably up to 2125.25.
That didn’t prevent an interim pullback. Entrenching the upside probably enabled the long overdue pullback. Attacking 2105.00 Sunday night and testing 2066.00 this morning is a meaningful pullback.
Now 2092.00 is being attacked, a big shift from the two-day pullback.
The afternoon bias environment exit was still within the noon hour’s range, but the final hour’s entry was above both. Extending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window could extend sharply higher through the close.
Friday afternoon’s 2091.00 low has been probed already by 1 point. The session’s “higher prior lows” are 2093.25, and the gap back to its close is essentially 2096.75. Those are attractions — potentially also repellents, so their recovery would be critical to extending the rally Thursday.
Otherwise, back under 2085.50 would at least delay extending higher today, perhaps even dip deeper to 2080.50.