S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s intraday recovery was rejected by Thursday’s gap down, and then extending down into the afternoon. Ultimately an inside day, a retest of post-Brexit lows is still likely.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1365.50 pullback limit was being tested at Thursday’s open, and being probed down to 1352.00 Thursday morning. Recovering into the afternoon attacked 1365.50 as resistance. Its recovery would target 1386.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 19.90 pullback limit failed Thursday morning, triggering a deeper dip to 19.52. Its reaction attacked 20.90, which must be recovered to retest recent highs.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Shallow overnight weakness enabled Thursday’s retest of Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs, and maintains potential for rallying further so long as 174-10/174-24 holds as support.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming further after Wednesday’s close held a test of the original 48.25-48.75 area’s sell signal. Thursday morning’s reaction to the delayed EIA report plunged to test the 45.00-45.40 target area down to 44.85. There is potential to 43.00 so long as bounces now hold 46.25.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and firming to 2.84 reacted down to Thursday morning’s EIA report. Negative territory down to 2.72 avoided fresh pullback lows, and recovered positive territory. Back above 2.85 would target filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2.98 close, and potentially resuming the rally.
Mid-day Update… Traction-less.
Open’s surge turns bad.
This morning’s 2097.00 bias-up signal triggered. It wasn’t rejected at 10:15, when the surge to 2102.00 was consolidating. It was probed soon after, but still held above the 2088.00 bias-down signal that would have rejected it at 11:30.
The noon hour and its entry repeatedly tested 2089.75 as support. That has resolved down to fresh lows at 2085.00. The afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal has triggered the grace period — it can be invalidated if recovered through 1:30.
Dipping this morning instead of rallying would have had room down to 2082.00 as just a temporary correction. That’s still the case, regardless of the open’s interim surge. Regardless, this morning’s 2103.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above” that requires being tested eventually.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 8, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report is highly reliable for triggering a reaction, but there are no other morning reports to duplicate it. The afternoon’s rig count triggered a volatile reaction last week, as did Wednesday’s API and Thursday’s EIA reports.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.00 | 2097.50 |
| …would target | 2110.50 | 2103.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.25 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2089.50 | 2082.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Modest gap up surges to fresh highs.
Gapping up to and/or through yesterday’s high was the minimum requirement to assume new sponsorship had arrived to extend yesterday’s rally. The 2094.25 opening print qualified.
Quickly exceeding the 2098.00 overnight high was less a requirement and more confirmation. Preferably 2099.50 would have been recovered by then, too. It was being tested, on the way up to 2102.00.
Overbought RSIs require the high’s retest. The 2103.25 bias-up target is in-play. A pullback to 2098.00 has reacted up to 2101.50 and can extend higher so long as 2098.75 continues holding as support.
A high-interest congressional hearing underway currently may be siphoning energy from the market and inhibiting trending. Trending in that situation is more difficult. By the same token, a knee-jerk reaction to other news would be likelier to retrace.
A deeper detour down to 2095.50 can’t be discounted. The 2097.00 bias-up signal should define the range’s lower-end if tested — probing under it should be brief and quickly reversed up.